Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
425 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Lower Michigan
Lake Huron
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A QLCS over western Lower Michigan will spread east across
the rest of eastern Lower Michigan into this evening. Damaging winds
and a brief tornado or two will be the main threats.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Mount Clemens MI to 25 miles west northwest of Bad Axe MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW
376...WW 377...WW 378...WW 379...WW 381...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Grams
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 382 SEVERE TSTM MI LH 252025Z - 260300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30WSW MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/ - 25WNW BAX/BAD AXE MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /13N DXO - 32S ASP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 42438416 43918426 43918265 42438259
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 382 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 382
VALID 252340Z - 260040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DTW TO
15 WNW MTC TO 30 WNW MBS.
..WEINMAN..06/25/23
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-063-087-099-111-145-147-151-157-260040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY HURON LAPEER
MACOMB MIDLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA
$$
LCZ422-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-260040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 382
VALID 252210Z - 252340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
..WEINMAN..06/25/23
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-087-093-099-111-125-145-147-151-155-157-252340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
LAPEER LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MIDLAND OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA
$$
LCZ422-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-252340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 382
VALID 252100Z - 252240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
..WEINMAN..06/25/23
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-087-093-099-111-125-145-147-151-155-157-252240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
LAPEER LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MIDLAND OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA
$$
LCZ422-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-252240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.