Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 635 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 85 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify across western Lower Michigan
this evening and spread eastward across the watch area. Strong to
intense wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells, along
with large hail. A tornado or two is also possible with any
supercells that can form.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Muskegon MI to 35 miles east northeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 654...WW 655...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Hart
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 635 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 85 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify across western Lower Michigan
this evening and spread eastward across the watch area. Strong to
intense wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells, along
with large hail. A tornado or two is also possible with any
supercells that can form.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest
of Muskegon MI to 35 miles east northeast of Mount Clemens MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 654...WW 655...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 656 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH LM 242235Z - 250500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50WSW MKG/MUSKEGON MI/ - 35ENE MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /51WSW MKG - 36SE ECK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..75 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 44058714 43958219 41638219 41738714
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 656 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 656
VALID 250230Z - 250340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBN
TO 20 WSW JXN TO 20 NNW ARB TO 10 ENE FNT TO 35 S BAX TO 20 N MTC
TO 40 ENE MTC.
..THORNTON..08/25/23
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC023-059-075-087-091-099-115-125-161-163-250340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH HILLSDALE JACKSON
LAPEER LENAWEE MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
LCZ423-460-LEZ444-250340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 656
VALID 250035Z - 250140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MKG
TO 35 ENE MKG TO 15 W MBS TO 15 SSE BAX TO 50 ENE BAX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
..THORNTON..08/25/23
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-057-059-065-067-075-077-
081-087-091-093-099-115-117-121-125-139-145-147-149-151-155-157-
159-161-163-250140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN
BRANCH CALHOUN CASS
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM
IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO
KENT LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
MONTCALM MUSKEGON OAKLAND
OTTAWA SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
ST. JOSEPH SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ442-443-463-464-LMZ043-046-080-844-845-
846-847-872-874-876-878-250140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 656
VALID 242325Z - 250040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..08/24/23
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-037-045-049-057-059-063-065-
067-073-075-077-081-087-091-093-099-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-
127-133-139-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-250040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN
CASS CLARE CLINTON
EATON GENESEE GRATIOT
HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM
IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KENT LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MECOSTA MIDLAND MONROE
MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO
OAKLAND OCEANA OSCEOLA
OTTAWA SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
ST. JOSEPH SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-LMZ043-
046-080-844-845-846-847-872-874-876-878-250040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.