(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300803
SPC AC 300803
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the
start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture
across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen
across the central US while weak troughing continues in the
northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS
through the weekend.
As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward
into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back
in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A
trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before
ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This
would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some
portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in
how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly
surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the
need to include areas at this time.
..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
