(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290843
SPC AC 290843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ARKLATEX AND WRN GULF COAST. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OFFSHORE FROM THE WRN FL PENINSULA COAST ON
TUESDAY/DAY 4. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAINBANDS OF ERIKA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE ERN FL PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND A FEW ROTATING STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 TO FRIDAY/DAY 7...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL U.S. AND
KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD WOULD APPEAR TO BE WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IN THE ERN GULF
COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ERIKA...WILL NOT ADD A 15
PERCENT CONTOUR AT THIS TIME.
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