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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 23, 2014
Updated: Tue Sep 23 08:58:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Sep 26, 2014 - Sat, Sep 27, 2014 D7Mon, Sep 29, 2014 - Tue, Sep 30, 2014
D5Sat, Sep 27, 2014 - Sun, Sep 28, 2014 D8Tue, Sep 30, 2014 - Wed, Oct 01, 2014
D6Sun, Sep 28, 2014 - Mon, Sep 29, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230856
   SPC AC 230856

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
   WEEK...ALTHOUGH INCREASING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS BY LATE IN
   THE WEEK CONCERNING DETAILS OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER
   THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. IN GENERAL...MODEST MOISTURE AND/OR A
   LACK OF STRONGER FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
   MEANINGFUL/WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE EPISODES. THAT SAID...SOME STRONG
   STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYS 4-6 FRIDAY-SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL ROCKIES
   VICINITY AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHIFT
   EASTWARD. SIMILARLY...SOME STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD REACH THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY AROUND DAYS 6/7 SUNDAY/MONDAY.

   ..GUYER.. 09/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 23, 2014
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