(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270832
SPC AC 270832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
AFTER A LULL IN EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BEGINNING ABOUT D5/TUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACCUMULATE OVER THE GULF AND ADJACENT STATES.
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WITH
TIME...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OFFERS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF
CONVECTIVE INTEREST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND D5/TUE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED
TO BE STRONG...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND D6-7.
IN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AROUND D6/WED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE WRN
STATES AROUND D8/FRI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES MIGHT SUPPORT POCKETS OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY SUGGESTS
DELINEATING SPECIFIC SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS IS PREMATURE.
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