(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010806
SPC AC 010806
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE FORCED OFF THE COAST
WITHIN BROAD OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME.
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