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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 1, 2014
Updated: Mon Sep 1 08:25:44 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Sep 04, 2014 - Fri, Sep 05, 2014 D7Sun, Sep 07, 2014 - Mon, Sep 08, 2014
D5Fri, Sep 05, 2014 - Sat, Sep 06, 2014 D8Mon, Sep 08, 2014 - Tue, Sep 09, 2014
D6Sat, Sep 06, 2014 - Sun, Sep 07, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010824
   SPC AC 010824

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   EDMWF/GFS AGREE IN TAKING A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY4...THOUGH PRIMARY FORCING FOR
   THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER.  WITH STRONGEST UVV EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN MANITOBA/NWRN
   ONTARIO...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
   GREAT LAKES.  WHILE SCT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...SHOULD
   DEVELOP ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE WIND SHIFT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
   STORMS MAY NOT REACH 30 PERCENT CRITERIA.  BEYOND THE DAY4
   PERIOD...STRONG SHEAR REQUIRED FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
   REMAIN DISPLACED FROM MOST BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN HALF OF THE
   CONUS.

   ..DARROW.. 09/01/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 01, 2014
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