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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 25, 2017
Updated: Sat Mar 25 08:18:03 UTC 2017
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Mar 28, 2017 - Wed, Mar 29, 2017 D7Fri, Mar 31, 2017 - Sat, Apr 01, 2017
D5Wed, Mar 29, 2017 - Thu, Mar 30, 2017 D8Sat, Apr 01, 2017 - Sun, Apr 02, 2017
D6Thu, Mar 30, 2017 - Fri, Mar 31, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 250815
   SPC AC 250815

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

   ...Day4/Tue TX/OK...
   A shortwave trough currently near the International Date Line in the
   central Pacific will move eastward and is forecast to deepen over
   the western United States on Tuesday.  Low-level cyclogenesis over
   NM and west TX will help transport Gulf moisture northwestward into
   west TX, where steep lapse rates and moderate CAPE values are
   expected to develop.  Present indications are that scattered strong
   to severe thunderstorms (including supercells) will affect parts of
   west TX and southwest OK on Tuesday.  These storms will move
   eastward into north-central TX during the evening/night.

   ...Day5/Wed Arklatex Region...
   00z models show reasonably good agreement that a surface low and
   associated low level jet will affect the Arklatex region on
   Wednesday. Considerable moisture and instability should reside in
   the warm sector of the low, with forecast soundings suggesting a
   favorable environment for a few severe thunderstorms from northeast
   TX and southeast OK into much of AR and northwest LA.

   ...Day6/Thu Lower MS Valley...
   Beginning on Thursday, model solutions begin to diverge regarding
   the strength/timing of pertinent features.  The 00z ECMWF/UKMET
   solutions would support a risk of severe storms over parts of the
   lower MS and TN Valleys.  However, the GFS and GEM output indicate
   significant uncertainty of this scenario.  Therefore will not
   include a 15% severe risk area for Thursday at this time.

   ...Day7/Fri and Day8/Sat...
   The next in a series of shortwave troughs will move into the western
   states and deepen on Fri/Sat.  This system is currently off the
   coast of Japan, and models differ substantially regarding the
   evolution of the trough. Therefore, confidence in details is low at
   this time.

   ..Hart.. 03/25/2017


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 25, 2017
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