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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 23, 2014
Updated: Sat Aug 23 08:35:04 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Aug 26, 2014 - Wed, Aug 27, 2014 D7Fri, Aug 29, 2014 - Sat, Aug 30, 2014
D5Wed, Aug 27, 2014 - Thu, Aug 28, 2014 D8Sat, Aug 30, 2014 - Sun, Aug 31, 2014
D6Thu, Aug 28, 2014 - Fri, Aug 29, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230834
   SPC AC 230834

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODEL-TO-MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST VARIOUS MEDIUM-RANGE PROGS
   DETERIORATES STEADILY WITH TIME WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH
   RESPECT TO DEPICTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.
    WHILE MOST RUNS KEEP A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST --
   I.E. OVER THE GULF STREAM...THE UKMET DOES DEPICT LANDFALL ON OR
   AROUND DAY 6 /THU 8-28/ ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. 
   OTHERWISE...SUBSTANTIAL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
   ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO EJECTION OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO/ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL CONUS.  WHILE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WOULD LIKELY
   ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES --
   EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE DAY 4/EARLY DAY 5 -- RENDER ANY ATTEMPT AT
   HIGHLIGHTING DAYS/LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC RISK IMPOSSIBLE ATTM.

   ..GOSS.. 08/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 23, 2014
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