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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 23, 2016
Updated: Sat Jul 23 07:13:02 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Jul 26, 2016 - Wed, Jul 27, 2016 D7Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - Sat, Jul 30, 2016
D5Wed, Jul 27, 2016 - Thu, Jul 28, 2016 D8Sat, Jul 30, 2016 - Sun, Jul 31, 2016
D6Thu, Jul 28, 2016 - Fri, Jul 29, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230711
   SPC AC 230711

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MS VALLEY...
   CONSENSUS OF ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   CENTERED ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC...WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BELT OF
   CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
   MID-MS VALLEY DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT
   A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
   REGIME WHICH MAY AID IN PERIODS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
   PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR THESE TYPE OF IMPULSES AND YIELDS LITTLE
   CONFIDENCE IN ASSESSING MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 23, 2016
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