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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2014
Updated: Mon Nov 24 09:24:02 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - Fri, Nov 28, 2014 D7Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - Mon, Dec 01, 2014
D5Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - Sat, Nov 29, 2014 D8Mon, Dec 01, 2014 - Tue, Dec 02, 2014
D6Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - Sun, Nov 30, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240923
   SPC AC 240923

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE THIS FEATURE SLOWLY
   EWD ON THURSDAY/DAY 4 WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
   NIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CNTRL
   AND ERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST COAST BY
   FRIDAY/DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WEST TO
   NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
   THE SFC HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NATION
   UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
   SETUP FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON
   SATURDAY/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
   MOIST AXIS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE SRN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...AN
   ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY/DAY 7 APPEARS UNLIKELY
   BECAUSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FORECAST RANGE...A
   SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 24, 2014
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