(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280837
SPC AC 280837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE
EXACT DEGREE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THIS
VARIABILITY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SEMI-PERSISTENT
BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO DAILY STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISKS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN DAILY
DETAILS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5...AND ACROSS A BROADER PART
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 6-7.
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