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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Feb 9, 2010
Updated: Tue Feb 9 09:35:05 UTC 2010
| D4 | Fri, Feb 12, 2010 - Sat, Feb 13, 2010 |
D7 | Mon, Feb 15, 2010 - Tue, Feb 16, 2010 |
| D5 | Sat, Feb 13, 2010 - Sun, Feb 14, 2010 |
D8 | Tue, Feb 16, 2010 - Wed, Feb 17, 2010 |
| D6 | Sun, Feb 14, 2010 - Mon, Feb 15, 2010 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090934
SPC AC 090934
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2010
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF -- ALONG THE MAIN
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS OR JUST S OF FL
THROUGH DAY 4 /FRI. FEB. 12/.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED...AS A LARGE TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CONUS. GIVEN THIS...AND GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS INDICATED THROUGH DAY
8.
..GOSS.. 02/09/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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