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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 26, 2014
Updated: Wed Nov 26 09:52:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - Sun, Nov 30, 2014 D7Tue, Dec 02, 2014 - Wed, Dec 03, 2014
D5Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - Mon, Dec 01, 2014 D8Wed, Dec 03, 2014 - Thu, Dec 04, 2014
D6Mon, Dec 01, 2014 - Tue, Dec 02, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260951
   SPC AC 260951

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A ZONAL
   FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. MID-LEVEL FLOW
   BECOMES A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 AS A SFC
   HIGH MOVES EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
   ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 WITH MOISTURE
   RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
   ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY BUT
   INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WEAK. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/DAY 6 ALONG THE MOIST CORRIDOR
   IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
   UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND POSITION OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WITH THE
   ECMWF FURTHER TO THE EAST. BOTH MODELS KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ON TUESDAY/DAY 7 BUT LARGE
   DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERNS. THIS
   INTRODUCES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE SRN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOCALLY
   ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/26/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 26, 2014
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