(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310728
SPC AC 310728
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE D4-D8 PERIOD UNDER A WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE ERN TROUGH WILL
FINALLY LIFT NEWD ON MON/D5...WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S F
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINLY A RAIN THREAT.
MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND
WED/D7 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THEN DEVELOPING EWD IN A LOW-AMPLITUDE
FASHION INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THU/D8. WHILE SOME WIND THREAT COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY SUCH A DISTURBANCE...PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT
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