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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 22, 2013
Updated: Wed May 22 08:39:03 UTC 2013
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, May 25, 2013 - Sun, May 26, 2013 D7Tue, May 28, 2013 - Wed, May 29, 2013
D5Sun, May 26, 2013 - Mon, May 27, 2013 D8Wed, May 29, 2013 - Thu, May 30, 2013
D6Mon, May 27, 2013 - Tue, May 28, 2013 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220838
   SPC AC 220838
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE
   PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 /MON. 5-27/...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   DIFFERENCES EMERGING THEREAFTER.
   
   OVERALL...THE PATTERN THROUGH DAY 6 SHOULD FEATURE A SLOWLY
   DEPARTING NERN U.S. TROUGH...WITH A SECOND/EVOLVING TROUGH REMAINING
   OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS.  AS VORTICITY MAXIMA EJECT
   REPEATEDLY FROM THIS TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS -- WHERE A LARGE-SCALE
   RIDGE WILL PERSIST...DIURNAL HIGH-PLAINS CONVECTION INITIATING INVOF
   THE LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE THE PREVAILING CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR
   SEVERAL DAYS.  WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY EACH
   OF THESE EJECTING FEATURES GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AMPLE
   INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES EACH
   DAY...THE THREAT EACH DAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA WHICH WOULD
   SUGGEST INCLUSION OF A 30% EQUIVALENT THREAT AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 22, 2013
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