(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230711
SPC AC 230711
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MS VALLEY...
CONSENSUS OF ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC...WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BELT OF
CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
MID-MS VALLEY DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT
A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
REGIME WHICH MAY AID IN PERIODS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR THESE TYPE OF IMPULSES AND YIELDS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ASSESSING MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT