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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 28, 2014
Updated: Mon Jul 28 06:54:04 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - Fri, Aug 01, 2014 D7Sun, Aug 03, 2014 - Mon, Aug 04, 2014
D5Fri, Aug 01, 2014 - Sat, Aug 02, 2014 D8Mon, Aug 04, 2014 - Tue, Aug 05, 2014
D6Sat, Aug 02, 2014 - Sun, Aug 03, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280653
   SPC AC 280653

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BENIGN IN TERMS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   THROUGH THE D4-D8 PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN
   CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE ERN TROUGH MAY RETROGRADE A BIT
   WITH TIME...ALLOWING MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN TO BACK WWD ALONG THE
   ERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY
   RAIN THREAT.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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