(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290855
SPC AC 290855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING
THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NEARBY UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL BE AS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
A RELATED INCREASE OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND AS SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY PRECLUDE
OUTLOOK DELINEATIONS...MULTIPLE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION INTO MID-WEEK. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT DAYS 5/6 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY DAY
7/THURSDAY WILL OFFER THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ELSEWHERE...OTHER PULSE-TYPE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT