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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 22, 2014
Updated: Fri Aug 22 08:54:05 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Aug 25, 2014 - Tue, Aug 26, 2014 D7Thu, Aug 28, 2014 - Fri, Aug 29, 2014
D5Tue, Aug 26, 2014 - Wed, Aug 27, 2014 D8Fri, Aug 29, 2014 - Sat, Aug 30, 2014
D6Wed, Aug 27, 2014 - Thu, Aug 28, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220853
   SPC AC 220853

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS NEWD DEPARTURE FROM THE
   N CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 /MON 8-25/...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL
   ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN U.S. WHILE A LONGER WAVELENGTH WRN U.S.
   TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD.  CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
   -- APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INVOF A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS THE SRN FRINGE
   OF A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD RESIDE ATOP THE SURFACE
   FRONTAL ZONE.  SOME CONCENTRATION OF RISK MAY OCCUR INVOF THE ERN
   CO/KS/NEB VICINITY...NEAR AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
   WHERE SHEAR WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.  HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS MORE
   AGGRESSIVE WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL
   SEVERE EVENT REMAINS LIMITED -- AND THUS INSUFFICIENT FOR INCLUSION
   OF A 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT RISK AREA.

   FROM DAY 5 ONWARD...DIFFERENCES AMONGST MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BECOME
   EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL...NOTABLY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH AND SPEED
   OF THE WRN TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED EFFECTS ON SURFACE PATTERN
   EVOLUTION/ AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE
   CENTRAL CONUS.  AS SUCH...NO HIGHLIGHTS OF ANY SEVERE RISK AREAS
   WILL BE INCLUDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 08/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 22, 2014
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