(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280653
SPC AC 280653
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BENIGN IN TERMS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH THE D4-D8 PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE ERN TROUGH MAY RETROGRADE A BIT
WITH TIME...ALLOWING MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN TO BACK WWD ALONG THE
ERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY
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