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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2015
Updated: Tue May 26 08:20:03 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, May 29, 2015 - Sat, May 30, 2015 D7Mon, Jun 01, 2015 - Tue, Jun 02, 2015
D5Sat, May 30, 2015 - Sun, May 31, 2015 D8Tue, Jun 02, 2015 - Wed, Jun 03, 2015
D6Sun, May 31, 2015 - Mon, Jun 01, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260818
   SPC AC 260818

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SEASONALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.  EVEN SO...SEVERAL
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS ENCOURAGING
   DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR PREDICTING ORGANIZED SEVERE...FROM A
   DAY4-8 PERSPECTIVE...POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
   MODULATE SEVERE ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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