(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250851
SPC AC 250851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC ARE RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO D5/TUE. THESE WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DESPITE MULTIPLE DAYS OF EXTENSIVE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION...DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH W/SWLYS IN THE
MID-LEVELS SHOULD RECHARGE/STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...POTENTIALLY
YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. OF THE TWO
DAYS HIGHLIGHTED...D5/TUE APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY GREATER OUTBREAK
POTENTIAL WITH A 90+ KT 500-MB JET EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
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