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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 6, 2015
Updated: Mon Jul 6 08:53:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Thu, Jul 09, 2015 - Fri, Jul 10, 2015 D7Sun, Jul 12, 2015 - Mon, Jul 13, 2015
D5Fri, Jul 10, 2015 - Sat, Jul 11, 2015 D8Mon, Jul 13, 2015 - Tue, Jul 14, 2015
D6Sat, Jul 11, 2015 - Sun, Jul 12, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 060851
   SPC AC 060851

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

   VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCLUDE THE WEST
   NORTHWESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF AN INITIALLY FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
   NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO A MORE PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH
   OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...SHARP RIDGING...IN THE MEAN...MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG AN
   AXIS NEAR THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...FLANKED
   BY UPPER TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...AND FROM QUEBEC
   SOUTHWARD NEAR APPALACHIANS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SHORT WAVE
   DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME REMAIN MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.  THE
   EVOLVING PATTERN PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
   STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF VERY WARM
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION. 
   HOWEVER...WITH POOR PATTERN PREDICTABILITY COMPLICATING
   MATTERS...LITTLE ELSE IS CURRENTLY READILY EVIDENT TO SUGGEST
   ANYTHING BEYOND RELATIVELY MINOR OR MARGINAL /FOR THE SEASON/ SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE.

   ..KERR.. 07/06/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 06, 2015
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