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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 29, 2015
Updated: Wed Jul 29 08:59:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, Aug 01, 2015 - Sun, Aug 02, 2015 D7Tue, Aug 04, 2015 - Wed, Aug 05, 2015
D5Sun, Aug 02, 2015 - Mon, Aug 03, 2015 D8Wed, Aug 05, 2015 - Thu, Aug 06, 2015
D6Mon, Aug 03, 2015 - Tue, Aug 04, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290857
   SPC AC 290857

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
   EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE
   EXACT DEGREE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
   FEATURES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SEMI-PERSISTENT BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG
   WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
   LAKES WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME DAILY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DAILY
   DETAILS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST
   SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY /DAYS 4-6/ AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   FRONT.

   ..GUYER.. 07/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 29, 2015
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