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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2012
Updated: Sat May 26 08:53:02 UTC 2012
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, May 29, 2012 - Wed, May 30, 2012 D7Fri, Jun 01, 2012 - Sat, Jun 02, 2012
D5Wed, May 30, 2012 - Thu, May 31, 2012 D8Sat, Jun 02, 2012 - Sun, Jun 03, 2012
D6Thu, May 31, 2012 - Fri, Jun 01, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260852
   SPC AC 260852
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
   
   VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NCNTRL U.S. WITH WLY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS
   THE SCNTRL STATES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT IDENTIFY A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...MODEL FORECASTS DO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY/DAY 4
   ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS TX AND OK. ANOTHER AREA
   WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST IN THE CNTRL AND NRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE THE GFS SHOWS
   MODERATE INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...THE
   MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH
   THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   THE MODELS THEN MOVE A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
   GULF COAST STATES ON THURSDAY/DAY 6. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR
   ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND NWD INTO THE MID
   MS VALLEY NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. BEYOND DAY 5...THE MODEL
   SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SHARPLY AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. IF THE GFS IS
   SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO BEING CORRECT...THEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/DAY 7. AT THIS
   POINT...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT POTENTIAL WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
   EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
   SEVERE THREAT AREA ATTM.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 26, 2012
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