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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 21, 2014
Updated: Tue Oct 21 07:54:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Oct 24, 2014 - Sat, Oct 25, 2014 D7Mon, Oct 27, 2014 - Tue, Oct 28, 2014
D5Sat, Oct 25, 2014 - Sun, Oct 26, 2014 D8Tue, Oct 28, 2014 - Wed, Oct 29, 2014
D6Sun, Oct 26, 2014 - Mon, Oct 27, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210753
   SPC AC 210753

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO NON-EXISTENT
   ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS DUE IN PART TO SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
   REINFORCED OVER THE ERN U.S. BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THIS WEEKEND.  A
   RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL STATES ON SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE
   TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT WILL
   PROBABLY FEATURE A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WRN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS
   PERHAPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE INITIAL AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE S-CNTRL
   STATES WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
   WEEK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   BUT AN ORGANIZED/CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..SMITH.. 10/21/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 21, 2014
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