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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 21, 2014
Updated: Sun Dec 21 09:44:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Dec 24, 2014 - Thu, Dec 25, 2014 D7Sat, Dec 27, 2014 - Sun, Dec 28, 2014
D5Thu, Dec 25, 2014 - Fri, Dec 26, 2014 D8Sun, Dec 28, 2014 - Mon, Dec 29, 2014
D6Fri, Dec 26, 2014 - Sat, Dec 27, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210942
   SPC AC 210942

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BEFORE FINALLY
   REACHING THE COAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT
   COLD FRONT. WHILE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE MOIST
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
   THREAT OVER THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...AND A RISK AREA
   MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED THERE IN LATER UPDATES. 

   DAY 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW DAY 5 OWING TO INTRUSION
   OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD INTO ERN
   TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 6 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
   BEYOND DAY 6 A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER MUCH
   OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND PROMOTE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
   GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

   ..DIAL.. 12/21/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: December 21, 2014
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