(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240817
SPC AC 240817
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 WITH A PERSISTENT
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES ON D4 INTO D5...INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG. BEYOND D5...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES...BUT IN GENERAL THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT NWD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A DECREASING THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
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