(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260848
SPC AC 260848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
THE LATEST LONG-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
MOVING THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MONDAY /DAY 5/ IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION MAY BE
WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY
FORECAST ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ALONG/EAST OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 7-8 TIME FRAME...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION.
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