(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260818
SPC AC 260818
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
SEASONALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. EVEN SO...SEVERAL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS ENCOURAGING
DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR PREDICTING ORGANIZED SEVERE...FROM A
DAY4-8 PERSPECTIVE...POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
MODULATE SEVERE ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT