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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 23, 2014
Updated: Wed Jul 23 08:47:04 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Jul 26, 2014 - Sun, Jul 27, 2014 D7Tue, Jul 29, 2014 - Wed, Jul 30, 2014
D5Sun, Jul 27, 2014 - Mon, Jul 28, 2014 D8Wed, Jul 30, 2014 - Thu, Jul 31, 2014
D6Mon, Jul 28, 2014 - Tue, Jul 29, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230846
   SPC AC 230846

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
   PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. A
   SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
   AT 12Z/SAT SHOULD DAMPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT
   LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE...LIKELY OVERLAPPING PARTS OF A WARM/MOIST
   SECTOR THAT WILL BE SHUNTED S BY A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. AT LEAST
   MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE APPARENT D4-5 ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO
   MID-MS/TN VALLEYS WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE ROBUST WITHIN AN EML
   PLUME. BUT MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME REMAINS TOO
   LOW TO RELIABLY DELINEATE A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER AREA.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 23, 2014
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