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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 29, 2017
Updated: Sat Apr 29 08:36:02 UTC 2017
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, May 02, 2017 - Wed, May 03, 2017 D7Fri, May 05, 2017 - Sat, May 06, 2017
D5Wed, May 03, 2017 - Thu, May 04, 2017 D8Sat, May 06, 2017 - Sun, May 07, 2017
D6Thu, May 04, 2017 - Fri, May 05, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 290834
   SPC AC 290834

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   Guidance is in generally good agreement that a mid-level trough will
   gradually amplify across parts of the central/eastern US during the
   middle and second half of the upcoming week. However, spatiotemporal
   details regarding smaller-scale, yet important, embedded impulses
   remain unclear.

   ...D5/Wednesday - D7/Friday: Eastern Texas to the Carolinas...
   Fairly rich moisture should return north across parts of the western
   Gulf Coast region through mid-week, as low-level flow turns
   southerly ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. In turn,
   buoyancy will increase ahead of a surface trough/front progressing
   east/southeast across the southern Plains. The combination of
   gradually increasing shear and the aforementioned buoyancy will
   likely yield a few rounds of severe weather across parts of the
   region from east Texas to the Carolinas during the second half of
   the week. However, guidance indicates several impulses within the
   sub-tropical jet will likely impact the timing/location of
   precipitation, with a resultant effect on the location of any
   favorable instability/shear overlap. As details regarding these
   features remain unclear, 15-percent probabilities are not introduced
   at this time. However, they could be needed in later outlooks.

   ..Picca.. 04/29/2017


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: April 29, 2017
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