(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210753
SPC AC 210753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO NON-EXISTENT
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS DUE IN PART TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
REINFORCED OVER THE ERN U.S. BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THIS WEEKEND. A
RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL STATES ON SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT WILL
PROBABLY FEATURE A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WRN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS
PERHAPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE S-CNTRL
STATES WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT AN ORGANIZED/CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
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