(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160851
SPC AC 160851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE D3/FRI MAY EXTEND INTO EARLY D4/SAT
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST. A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT ON D5/SUN OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND D8/WED OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A TROUGH...LARGE SPATIOTEMPORAL SPREAD WITH ITS EVOLUTION EXISTS
/TYPICAL OF THIS TIME FRAME/. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CONFINED IN A N-S CORRIDOR GIVEN ANTECEDENT CP
AIR MASS INTRUSION INTO THE GULF AS WELL AS MULTIPLE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE NERN GULF.
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