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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 5, 2015
Updated: Sun Jul 5 08:52:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Jul 08, 2015 - Thu, Jul 09, 2015 D7Sat, Jul 11, 2015 - Sun, Jul 12, 2015
D5Thu, Jul 09, 2015 - Fri, Jul 10, 2015 D8Sun, Jul 12, 2015 - Mon, Jul 13, 2015
D6Fri, Jul 10, 2015 - Sat, Jul 11, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050850
   SPC AC 050850

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AN AMPLIFYING
   PERTURBATION COULD EMERGE FROM A MODEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS BY MID-WEEK...AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
   SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
   PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WAS
   CERTAIN...DISPARITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING POTENTIAL
   NORTHWESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER INLAND OF
   THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
   WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON ITS TRACK
   EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD.

   ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE CLOSED LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
   CALIFORNIA COAST.  ITS REMNANTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
   INLAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...AS A
   SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS AND BECOMES INCREASING PROMINENT
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
   WEEKEND.  THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL ALLOW VERY WARM
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR TO ADVECT EAST OF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU
   REGION...THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...AND AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
   CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEMS. 

   DUE TO LARGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND BOTH LOW
   POTENTIAL AND LOW PREDICTABILITY ISSUES IN THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK
   TIME FRAME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH
   THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

   ..KERR.. 07/05/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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