(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100823
SPC AC 100823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
MEAN LONG-WAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WHILE SEVERAL STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DIG SEWD IN VARYING FORMS/SPEEDS ALONG/EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF MARITIME AIR MASS
WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE INLAND AS A PROPENSITY FOR OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE THIS WEEKEND SELY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES MAY ALLOW MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF TX. AT THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IF SHORT-WAVE DEPICTED BY MODELS MATERIALIZES.
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