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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 25, 2014
Updated: Sat Oct 25 08:37:02 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Oct 28, 2014 - Wed, Oct 29, 2014 D7Fri, Oct 31, 2014 - Sat, Nov 01, 2014
D5Wed, Oct 29, 2014 - Thu, Oct 30, 2014 D8Sat, Nov 01, 2014 - Sun, Nov 02, 2014
D6Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - Fri, Oct 31, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250836
   SPC AC 250836

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AS ALLUDED TO IN THE CURRENT D3 OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
   AN EWD-MOVING/SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO S-CNTRL
   CONUS WILL BE EMANATING FROM A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS. THIS MOISTURE
   PLUME WILL BECOME PINCHED OFF ON D4 AS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. FAST FLOW SHOULD EXIST TUE
   AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY...WHERE A
   MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY BECOME EVIDENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO LOWER
   GREAT LAKES. BEYOND D4...SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE AS
   WEAK OR NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME PERVASIVE OVER THE GULF.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 25, 2014
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