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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 31, 2015
Updated: Tue Mar 31 08:41:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - Sat, Apr 04, 2015 D7Mon, Apr 06, 2015 - Tue, Apr 07, 2015
D5Sat, Apr 04, 2015 - Sun, Apr 05, 2015 D8Tue, Apr 07, 2015 - Wed, Apr 08, 2015
D6Sun, Apr 05, 2015 - Mon, Apr 06, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 310839
   SPC AC 310839

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE
   THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
   AND SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DAY 4 /FRI 4-3/...AS THE PARENT UPPER
   TOUGH ADVANCES INTO THE ERN U.S. WITH TIME.  WITH A FAVORABLY MOIST
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS FAR ENEWD AS THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL
   GULF COAST REGION...DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.  

   WITH STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS.  A MORE ISOLATED/LOWER SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND ENEWD
   TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS /THOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE TO
   BE A LIMITING FACTOR/ AS WELL AS WSWWD INTO TX /THOUGH CAPPING
   SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/.  

   WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS AND
   A DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE
   CONUS...SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
   PERIOD -- ROUGHLY DAYS 5-7.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
   HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND SOME RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS
   SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE RISK TOWARD -- AND AFTER
   -- THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 03/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 31, 2015
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