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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 30, 2016
Updated: Fri Sep 30 07:38:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Oct 03, 2016 - Tue, Oct 04, 2016 D7Thu, Oct 06, 2016 - Fri, Oct 07, 2016
D5Tue, Oct 04, 2016 - Wed, Oct 05, 2016 D8Fri, Oct 07, 2016 - Sat, Oct 08, 2016
D6Wed, Oct 05, 2016 - Thu, Oct 06, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300736
   SPC AC 300736

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

   VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A POTENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL EMERGE IN
   THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY /DAY 5/.  A SLOW TO ABATE SURFACE RIDGE
   INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
   PRIOR TO TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  BY TUESDAY
   /DAY 5/...MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS /GFS-ECMWF-UKMET/ AND
   TIME-LAGGED VERSIONS OF THESE MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF
   NORTHWARD-RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
   BUOYANCY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO OK/TX WHERE
   BUOYANCY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  THE RISK FOR SOME SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
   BUT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   WILL SEEMINGLY FOCUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TX/WESTERN OK AND INTO PARTS OF
   WEST-CENTRAL KS.

   ..SMITH.. 09/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 30, 2016
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