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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 29, 2015
Updated: Sat Aug 29 08:45:03 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Sep 01, 2015 - Wed, Sep 02, 2015 D7Fri, Sep 04, 2015 - Sat, Sep 05, 2015
D5Wed, Sep 02, 2015 - Thu, Sep 03, 2015 D8Sat, Sep 05, 2015 - Sun, Sep 06, 2015
D6Thu, Sep 03, 2015 - Fri, Sep 04, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290843
   SPC AC 290843

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
   THE ARKLATEX AND WRN GULF COAST. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE CENTER
   HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OFFSHORE FROM THE WRN FL PENINSULA COAST ON
   TUESDAY/DAY 4. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
   THE CENTER ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   RAINBANDS OF ERIKA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
   IN THE ERN FL PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND A FEW ROTATING STORMS
   WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
   ELSEWHERE...FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 TO FRIDAY/DAY 7...THE GFS AND ECMWF
   SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL U.S. AND
   KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS.
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EACH
   AFTERNOON FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CAN
   NOT BE RULED OUT.

   THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8
   PERIOD WOULD APPEAR TO BE WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IN THE ERN GULF
   COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
   CONCERNING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ERIKA...WILL NOT ADD A 15
   PERCENT CONTOUR AT THIS TIME.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 29, 2015
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