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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 1, 2015
Updated: Sun Feb 1 09:52:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Feb 04, 2015 - Thu, Feb 05, 2015 D7Sat, Feb 07, 2015 - Sun, Feb 08, 2015
D5Thu, Feb 05, 2015 - Fri, Feb 06, 2015 D8Sun, Feb 08, 2015 - Mon, Feb 09, 2015
D6Fri, Feb 06, 2015 - Sat, Feb 07, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010950
   SPC AC 010950

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN AN UPPER TROUGH OF VARYING
   AMPLITUDES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
   EXTENDED RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW MOST OF
   THE 4-8 PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY /DAY 5/ OVER
   THE FL PENINSULA. THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA CA AREA IS
   FORECAST DEAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW
   REGIME BEFORE REACHING THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE YET TO
   DEMONSTRATE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
   FEATURE...AND DIFFERENCES ALSO PERSIST BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
   ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OVER
   THE GULF AND SPREAD INTO THE PENINSULA SOMETIME THURSDAY. WHILE A
   SEVERE THREAT MIGHT ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTENS AND DEEP-LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
   SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A 15% OR GREATER PROBABILISTIC RISK AREA AT
   THIS TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 02/01/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 01, 2015
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