(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020948
SPC AC 020948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
IN THE LARGE SCALE...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ TEND TO
AGREE WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
DURING DAYS 4-8 /THU-MON/. A BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH DAY 5/6 /FRI-MARCH 6
AND SAT-MARCH 7/...AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN STATES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT-FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY
BE MAINTAINED FROM KS/OK THROUGH THE TN VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION BEGINNING
DURING DAY 6 AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES A PROMINENT FEATURE EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE GULF BASIN AND OFF
THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST PRECLUDING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
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