(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290834
SPC AC 290834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
Guidance is in generally good agreement that a mid-level trough will
gradually amplify across parts of the central/eastern US during the
middle and second half of the upcoming week. However, spatiotemporal
details regarding smaller-scale, yet important, embedded impulses
...D5/Wednesday - D7/Friday: Eastern Texas to the Carolinas...
Fairly rich moisture should return north across parts of the western
Gulf Coast region through mid-week, as low-level flow turns
southerly ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. In turn,
buoyancy will increase ahead of a surface trough/front progressing
east/southeast across the southern Plains. The combination of
gradually increasing shear and the aforementioned buoyancy will
likely yield a few rounds of severe weather across parts of the
region from east Texas to the Carolinas during the second half of
the week. However, guidance indicates several impulses within the
sub-tropical jet will likely impact the timing/location of
precipitation, with a resultant effect on the location of any
favorable instability/shear overlap. As details regarding these
features remain unclear, 15-percent probabilities are not introduced
at this time. However, they could be needed in later outlooks.
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