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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 27, 2015
Updated: Fri Mar 27 08:34:03 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Mar 30, 2015 - Tue, Mar 31, 2015 D7Thu, Apr 02, 2015 - Fri, Apr 03, 2015
D5Tue, Mar 31, 2015 - Wed, Apr 01, 2015 D8Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - Sat, Apr 04, 2015
D6Wed, Apr 01, 2015 - Thu, Apr 02, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270832
   SPC AC 270832

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AFTER A LULL IN EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE BEGINNING ABOUT D5/TUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACCUMULATE OVER THE GULF AND ADJACENT STATES.
   ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WITH
   TIME...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OFFERS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF
   CONVECTIVE INTEREST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD APPROACH THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND D5/TUE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED
   TO BE STRONG...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   SMALL-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND D6-7.
   IN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AROUND D6/WED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE WRN
   STATES AROUND D8/FRI. ALL OF THESE FEATURES MIGHT SUPPORT POCKETS OF
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT LOW PREDICTABILITY SUGGESTS
   DELINEATING SPECIFIC SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS IS PREMATURE.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/27/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 27, 2015
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