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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 24, 2018
Updated: Thu May 24 08:01:02 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sun, May 27, 2018 - Mon, May 28, 2018 D7Wed, May 30, 2018 - Thu, May 31, 2018
D5Mon, May 28, 2018 - Tue, May 29, 2018 D8Thu, May 31, 2018 - Fri, Jun 01, 2018
D6Tue, May 29, 2018 - Wed, May 30, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 240759
   SPC AC 240759

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

   Medium-range model guidance is in general agreement that large-scale
   ridging will hold over the Plains into early next week with broad
   troughing expected over the West. While isolated-scattered
   convection may develop along the lee trough during the day4-6 time
   frame, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the eastward
   progression of the western US trough. Additionally, significant low
   pressure system is expected to migrate across the northern Gulf
   Basin into the Gulf states which will limit northward moisture
   return across the Plains. This could negate an otherwise potentially
   more buoyant air mass along the lee trough. Isolated severe may
   ultimately develop across portions of the High Plains but too much
   uncertainty exists at this time to introduce 15% severe probs.

   ..Darrow.. 05/24/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 24, 2018
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