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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 24, 2016
Updated: Sun Jul 24 08:22:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Jul 27, 2016 - Thu, Jul 28, 2016 D7Sat, Jul 30, 2016 - Sun, Jul 31, 2016
D5Thu, Jul 28, 2016 - Fri, Jul 29, 2016 D8Sun, Jul 31, 2016 - Mon, Aug 01, 2016
D6Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - Sat, Jul 30, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240820
   SPC AC 240820

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS
   DEPICT A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING A MIDLEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...AND A MEAN TROUGH
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...AND MAY FEATURE BOUTS OF
   STRONG CONVECTION AS EARLY AS WED/D4...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
   SMALLER-SCALE UPPER IMPULSES AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON MESOSCALE
   DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW...PRECLUDING ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION
   THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 24, 2016
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