(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110855
SPC AC 110855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
WEAK SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM...INDUCED/MAINTAINED BY PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/GULF STATES DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY/ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
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