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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 13, 2016
Updated: Sat Feb 13 08:36:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Feb 16, 2016 - Wed, Feb 17, 2016 D7Fri, Feb 19, 2016 - Sat, Feb 20, 2016
D5Wed, Feb 17, 2016 - Thu, Feb 18, 2016 D8Sat, Feb 20, 2016 - Sun, Feb 21, 2016
D6Thu, Feb 18, 2016 - Fri, Feb 19, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 130834
   SPC AC 130834

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

   VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
   NC COAST EARLY TUESDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH
   THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN U.S. THROUGH
   DAY 5 WITH GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. FOR DAYS
   6-7 PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME WITH A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OH
   VALLEY DAY 7. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   ..DIAL.. 02/13/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 13, 2016
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