(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210856
SPC AC 210856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY CONDITIONS PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
MUCH OF THE WEEK...MODEST MOISTURE AND A LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE
SEVERE RISK. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN STATES
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT