(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120841
SPC AC 120841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO FAR WEST TX EARLY SUNDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
SETTLES INTO NM IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE MOISTURE SHOULD
ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX INTO CNTRL TX ENHANCING
INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS SHOULD SURGE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS INTO TX AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
FALL ACROSS NM/WEST TX. RESULTANT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
SWD-SURGING BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT BE STRONG BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
INDUCING CONVECTION BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXHIBIT VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT THAT COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG/FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IT/S NOT REAL CLEAR HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS TX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THERE
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DUE TO WEAK LOW
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