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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 12, 2016
Updated: Fri Feb 12 09:10:04 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Feb 15, 2016 - Tue, Feb 16, 2016 D7Thu, Feb 18, 2016 - Fri, Feb 19, 2016
D5Tue, Feb 16, 2016 - Wed, Feb 17, 2016 D8Fri, Feb 19, 2016 - Sat, Feb 20, 2016
D6Wed, Feb 17, 2016 - Thu, Feb 18, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 120908
   SPC AC 120908

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

   VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY
   /DAY 4/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDING LIMITED GULF-MOISTURE
   RETURN WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH AT
   LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
   THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES A 15% AREA FOR THIS UPDATE.
   HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MIGHT NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN THE
   NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK. 

   BEYOND DAY 4...MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
   THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6. GIVEN GENERAL PATTERN OF AN UPPER TROUGH
   PERSISTING OVER THE ERN STATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO DAY
   7...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ..DIAL.. 02/12/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 12, 2016
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