(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290857
SPC AC 290857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE
EXACT DEGREE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
FEATURES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SEMI-PERSISTENT BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME DAILY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DAILY
DETAILS...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY /DAYS 4-6/ AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
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