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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 5, 2016
Updated: Thu May 5 08:32:03 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sun, May 08, 2016 - Mon, May 09, 2016 D7Wed, May 11, 2016 - Thu, May 12, 2016
D5Mon, May 09, 2016 - Tue, May 10, 2016 D8Thu, May 12, 2016 - Fri, May 13, 2016
D6Tue, May 10, 2016 - Wed, May 11, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050830
   SPC AC 050830

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

   VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
   OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY4
   PERIOD...AND MS VALLEY BY MONDAY.  BEYOND DAY5...PREDICTABILITY FOR
   SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE LOW DUE TO DAY5 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND
   VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS.

   THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS DURING
   THE DAY5 PERIOD WILL BE THE RELUCTANCE OF THE GULF BASIN AIR MASS TO
   TRULY MODIFY AND THE SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF REASONABLE MOISTURE ACROSS
   THE PLAINS.  WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST DEEP
   CONVECTION...DRY LINE TSTMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGH BASED SUNDAY.  THUS
   SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   UPPER SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY AND
   ADEQUATE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCT SEVERE
   TSTMS...POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR.  BEYOND DAY5...PREDICTABILITY IS
   TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK.

   ..DARROW.. 05/05/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 05, 2016
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