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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 2, 2015
Updated: Mon Mar 2 09:50:03 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Thu, Mar 05, 2015 - Fri, Mar 06, 2015 D7Sun, Mar 08, 2015 - Mon, Mar 09, 2015
D5Fri, Mar 06, 2015 - Sat, Mar 07, 2015 D8Mon, Mar 09, 2015 - Tue, Mar 10, 2015
D6Sat, Mar 07, 2015 - Sun, Mar 08, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020948
   SPC AC 020948

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   IN THE LARGE SCALE...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ TEND TO
   AGREE WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
   DURING DAYS 4-8 /THU-MON/.  A BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN LOCATED
   ALONG AND JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH DAY 5/6 /FRI-MARCH 6
   AND SAT-MARCH 7/...AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN STATES
   BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT-FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY
   BE MAINTAINED FROM KS/OK THROUGH THE TN VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
   THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION BEGINNING
   DURING DAY 6 AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES A PROMINENT FEATURE EAST
   OF THE ROCKIES.

   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE GULF BASIN AND OFF
   THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST PRECLUDING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

   ..PETERS.. 03/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 02, 2015
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