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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jul 3, 2009
Updated: Fri Jul 3 08:48:06 UTC 2009
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Mon, Jul 06, 2009 - Tue, Jul 07, 2009 |
D7 | Thu, Jul 09, 2009 - Fri, Jul 10, 2009 |
| D5 | Tue, Jul 07, 2009 - Wed, Jul 08, 2009 |
D8 | Fri, Jul 10, 2009 - Sat, Jul 11, 2009 |
| D6 | Wed, Jul 08, 2009 - Thu, Jul 09, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030847
SPC AC 030847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
4-8 PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SPREAD INTO NRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY 6 /WED JULY 8/ AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES...LARGELY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NRN PLAINS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING DAY 7 OR DAY 8 /THU JULY 9 AND FRI JULY 10/.
HOWEVER...BEYOND DAY 4 THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEFS MEMBERS INDICATE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY
PERTAINING TO SHORTER WAVE LENGTH DETAILS AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY OF SURFACE LOW LOCATION AND INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
EXTENDED LEAD TIME OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...A REGIONAL SEVERE STORM AREA WILL NOT DELINEATED ATTM.
..WEISS.. 07/03/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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