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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 23, 2014
Updated: Wed Apr 23 08:52:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 145,699 4,414,553 Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...
D5 258,771 21,803,253 Dallas, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
D6 277,246 22,350,691 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...
D4Sat, Apr 26, 2014 - Sun, Apr 27, 2014 D7Tue, Apr 29, 2014 - Wed, Apr 30, 2014
D5Sun, Apr 27, 2014 - Mon, Apr 28, 2014 D8Wed, Apr 30, 2014 - Thu, May 01, 2014
D6Mon, Apr 28, 2014 - Tue, Apr 29, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230851
   SPC AC 230851

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

   MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
   ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF
   WRN U.S. TROUGH.  CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING.  LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS
   LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
   INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY.  INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
   SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN
   EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY
   MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
   VALLEY.

   MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.  STRONGLY
   DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS
   LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
   KS.  MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z
   SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING
   ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT.  AS A
   RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
   MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF
   POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

   LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
   THE MS VALLEY.  SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE
   TN.  TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR
   CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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