(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250825
SPC AC 250825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY
4-8 PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SEGMENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE
LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SERVE TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY DAY 8...MODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. OVERALL...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY 4-8 TIME FRAME.
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