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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 16, 2014
Updated: Wed Apr 16 08:52:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Apr 19, 2014 - Sun, Apr 20, 2014 D7Tue, Apr 22, 2014 - Wed, Apr 23, 2014
D5Sun, Apr 20, 2014 - Mon, Apr 21, 2014 D8Wed, Apr 23, 2014 - Thu, Apr 24, 2014
D6Mon, Apr 21, 2014 - Tue, Apr 22, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 160851
   SPC AC 160851

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE D3/FRI MAY EXTEND INTO EARLY D4/SAT
   ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST. A
   MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT ON D5/SUN OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
   HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND D8/WED OVER
   THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES
   THROUGH THE WEST. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
   A TROUGH...LARGE SPATIOTEMPORAL SPREAD WITH ITS EVOLUTION EXISTS
   /TYPICAL OF THIS TIME FRAME/. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
   SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CONFINED IN A N-S CORRIDOR GIVEN ANTECEDENT CP
   AIR MASS INTRUSION INTO THE GULF AS WELL AS MULTIPLE SRN STREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE NERN GULF.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/16/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: April 16, 2014
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