Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 24, 2017
Updated: Sat Jun 24 07:53:03 UTC 2017
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Jun 27, 2017 - Wed, Jun 28, 2017 D7Fri, Jun 30, 2017 - Sat, Jul 01, 2017
D5Wed, Jun 28, 2017 - Thu, Jun 29, 2017 D8Sat, Jul 01, 2017 - Sun, Jul 02, 2017
D6Thu, Jun 29, 2017 - Fri, Jun 30, 2017 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 240751
   SPC AC 240751

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   On D4/Tue, shortwave ridging will move quickly eastward across the
   northern Plains with a 30-40 kt midlevel speed max moving into the
   area by late in the day. High pressure will remain centered over the
   mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys, with southerly flow across the
   plains bringing near 60 dewpoints northward into the Dakotas ahead
   of a surface low. MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is expected, with
   scattered storms by late afternoon from the central Dakotas into
   Nebraska. Given the progressive upper trough and an increasing
   low-level jet, storms are expected to persist at least through
   evening, with hail and wind possible.

   By early D5/Wed, the upper disturbance will be located near the
   Mississippi river, and will continue eastward across the upper Great
   Lakes. By this time, the surface low will be over western Ontario,
   but moisture will have increased across the Minnesota, Wisconsin and
   Iowa with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Given that storms will be
   ongoing, predictability is too low to denote a D5 area, although an
   eventual Slight Risk appears possible in later outlooks.

   From D6/Thu and beyond, as broad belt of modest zonal flow aloft
   will remain across the northern tiers of states, and large,
   broadening moist sector will develop south of the synoptic front
   which will extend roughly from northern Nebraska eastward into New
   England. While sporadic clusters of storms are possible along this
   general zone, predictability will remain low.

   ..Jewell.. 06/24/2017


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: June 24, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities