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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 31, 2014
Updated: Thu Jul 31 07:29:04 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Aug 03, 2014 - Mon, Aug 04, 2014 D7Wed, Aug 06, 2014 - Thu, Aug 07, 2014
D5Mon, Aug 04, 2014 - Tue, Aug 05, 2014 D8Thu, Aug 07, 2014 - Fri, Aug 08, 2014
D6Tue, Aug 05, 2014 - Wed, Aug 06, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 310728
   SPC AC 310728

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE D4-D8 PERIOD UNDER A WEAK UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE ERN TROUGH WILL
   FINALLY LIFT NEWD ON MON/D5...WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
   REMAINING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY WEAK
   INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NWD
   ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S F
   LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINLY A RAIN THREAT.

   MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND
   WED/D7 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THEN DEVELOPING EWD IN A LOW-AMPLITUDE
   FASHION INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THU/D8. WHILE SOME WIND THREAT COULD BE
   SUPPORTED BY SUCH A DISTURBANCE...PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT
   THIS TIME.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/31/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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