(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140849
SPC AC 140849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains
and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow
will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS
Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will
likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong
instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe
thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and
associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly
sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored
convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and
potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA
into central/southern MS.
The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and
FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward.
However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday
as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce
any outlook areas.
Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern
Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range
guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will
progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains
early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this
shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early
next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within
the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low.
..Mosier.. 05/14/2024
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