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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 29, 2015
Updated: Fri May 29 08:57:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Jun 01, 2015 - Tue, Jun 02, 2015 D7Thu, Jun 04, 2015 - Fri, Jun 05, 2015
D5Tue, Jun 02, 2015 - Wed, Jun 03, 2015 D8Fri, Jun 05, 2015 - Sat, Jun 06, 2015
D6Wed, Jun 03, 2015 - Thu, Jun 04, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 290855
   SPC AC 290855

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING
   THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NEARBY UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
   WILL BE AS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
   A RELATED INCREASE OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
   ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND AS SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE GRADUALLY
   DEVELOPS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE SOME
   GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY PRECLUDE
   OUTLOOK DELINEATIONS...MULTIPLE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS APPEAR
   PLAUSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION INTO MID-WEEK. CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT DAYS 5/6 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY DAY
   7/THURSDAY WILL OFFER THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   ELSEWHERE...OTHER PULSE-TYPE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL
   FRONT.

   ..GUYER.. 05/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 29, 2015
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