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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 25, 2016
Updated: Wed May 25 08:13:02 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, May 28, 2016 - Sun, May 29, 2016 D7Tue, May 31, 2016 - Wed, Jun 01, 2016
D5Sun, May 29, 2016 - Mon, May 30, 2016 D8Wed, Jun 01, 2016 - Thu, Jun 02, 2016
D6Mon, May 30, 2016 - Tue, May 31, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250811
   SPC AC 250811

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD.  FOR SATURDAY /DAY
   4/...A RESIDUAL BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING
   TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE
   PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.  BY DAY 5
   /SUNDAY/...A LOWER-LATITUDE BELT OF MODERATE FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD A
   REINVIGORATING MOIST/UNSTABLE RESERVOIR OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  BY THE
   LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL
   SLACKENING IN FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR MORE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN
   STRONG/SEVERE EVENTS WHICH RESULT IN PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS.

   ..SMITH.. 05/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 25, 2016
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