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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 13, 2008
Updated: Tue May 13 08:42:05 UTC 2008
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Fri, May 16, 2008 - Sat, May 17, 2008 |
D7 | Mon, May 19, 2008 - Tue, May 20, 2008 |
| D5 | Sat, May 17, 2008 - Sun, May 18, 2008 |
D8 | Tue, May 20, 2008 - Wed, May 21, 2008 |
| D6 | Sun, May 18, 2008 - Mon, May 19, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130841
SPC AC 130841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S...WHILE WEAK
TROUGHING HOLDS ACROSS NRN MEXICO/SWRN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD...MEAGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT AND MARGINAL MOISTURE DO NOT
WARRANT A SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. BEYOND
DAY4...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN INLAND AS LARGE
SCALE CONFLUENCE MAINTAINS SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
..DARROW.. 05/13/2008
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