(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130834
SPC AC 130834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
NC COAST EARLY TUESDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN U.S. THROUGH
DAY 5 WITH GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. FOR DAYS
6-7 PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OH
VALLEY DAY 7. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT