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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 4, 2015
Updated: Fri Sep 4 08:47:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Sep 07, 2015 - Tue, Sep 08, 2015 D7Thu, Sep 10, 2015 - Fri, Sep 11, 2015
D5Tue, Sep 08, 2015 - Wed, Sep 09, 2015 D8Fri, Sep 11, 2015 - Sat, Sep 12, 2015
D6Wed, Sep 09, 2015 - Thu, Sep 10, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040845
   SPC AC 040845

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES
   REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME.  ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   SPREAD EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH WEAK FORCING
   EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID
   MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS.  LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST STRONGEST FLOW
   ALOFT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FROM MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS ALONG THE
   TRAILING BOUNDARY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  WHILE ROBUST CONVECTION
   MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SHEAR DOES NOT
   SEEM ADEQUATE TO WARRANT 15 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE PROBS. 
   CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD DURING SUBSEQUENT DAYS6-7 AS
   FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION. 
   FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

   ..DARROW.. 09/04/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 04, 2015
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