(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060851
SPC AC 060851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2015
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCLUDE THE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF AN INITIALLY FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO A MORE PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME
TIME...SHARP RIDGING...IN THE MEAN...MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG AN
AXIS NEAR THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...FLANKED
BY UPPER TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...AND FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWARD NEAR APPALACHIANS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME REMAIN MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
EVOLVING PATTERN PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH POOR PATTERN PREDICTABILITY COMPLICATING
MATTERS...LITTLE ELSE IS CURRENTLY READILY EVIDENT TO SUGGEST
ANYTHING BEYOND RELATIVELY MINOR OR MARGINAL /FOR THE SEASON/ SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE.
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