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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 28, 2015
Updated: Tue Jul 28 08:39:02 UTC 2015
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, Jul 31, 2015 - Sat, Aug 01, 2015 D7Mon, Aug 03, 2015 - Tue, Aug 04, 2015
D5Sat, Aug 01, 2015 - Sun, Aug 02, 2015 D8Tue, Aug 04, 2015 - Wed, Aug 05, 2015
D6Sun, Aug 02, 2015 - Mon, Aug 03, 2015 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 280837
   SPC AC 280837

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
   EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE
   EXACT DEGREE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/GREAT
   LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THIS
   VARIABILITY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SEMI-PERSISTENT
   BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
   THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO DAILY STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM RISKS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN DAILY
   DETAILS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5...AND ACROSS A BROADER PART
   OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR
   SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 6-7.

   ..GUYER.. 07/28/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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