(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050830
SPC AC 050830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY4
PERIOD...AND MS VALLEY BY MONDAY. BEYOND DAY5...PREDICTABILITY FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE LOW DUE TO DAY5 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND
VARIABILITY AMONG MODELS.
THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY5 PERIOD WILL BE THE RELUCTANCE OF THE GULF BASIN AIR MASS TO
TRULY MODIFY AND THE SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF REASONABLE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST DEEP
CONVECTION...DRY LINE TSTMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGH BASED SUNDAY. THUS
SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCT SEVERE
TSTMS...POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR. BEYOND DAY5...PREDICTABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK.
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