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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 21, 2014
Updated: Sun Sep 21 08:57:02 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

Severe Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Sep 24, 2014 - Thu, Sep 25, 2014 D7Sat, Sep 27, 2014 - Sun, Sep 28, 2014
D5Thu, Sep 25, 2014 - Fri, Sep 26, 2014 D8Sun, Sep 28, 2014 - Mon, Sep 29, 2014
D6Fri, Sep 26, 2014 - Sat, Sep 27, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210856
   SPC AC 210856

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
   THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE
   VARIABILITY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WITH SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE/DRY CONDITIONS PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
   MUCH OF THE WEEK...MODEST MOISTURE AND A LACK OF STRONGER
   FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE
   SEVERE RISK. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS JUNCTURE...SOME
   SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE NEXT
   WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN STATES
   TROUGH.

   ..GUYER.. 09/21/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 21, 2014
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