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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Jul 3, 2009
Updated: Fri Jul 3 08:48:06 UTC 2009
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 3, 2009

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

D4Mon, Jul 06, 2009 - Tue, Jul 07, 2009 D7Thu, Jul 09, 2009 - Fri, Jul 10, 2009
D5Tue, Jul 07, 2009 - Wed, Jul 08, 2009 D8Fri, Jul 10, 2009 - Sat, Jul 11, 2009
D6Wed, Jul 08, 2009 - Thu, Jul 09, 2009 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030847
   SPC AC 030847
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
   
   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE HIGHER
   AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
   4-8 PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH A
   SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
   PACIFIC MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION WILL
   SPREAD INTO NRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY 6 /WED JULY 8/ AS THE RIDGE
   AMPLIFIES...LARGELY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NRN PLAINS
   UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY
   DURING DAY 7 OR DAY 8 /THU JULY 9 AND FRI JULY 10/. 
   HOWEVER...BEYOND DAY 4 THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEFS MEMBERS INDICATE
   CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY
   PERTAINING TO SHORTER WAVE LENGTH DETAILS AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT
   AND INTENSITY OF SURFACE LOW LOCATION AND INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE
   EXTENDED LEAD TIME OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE NRN
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
   SOLUTIONS...A REGIONAL SEVERE STORM AREA WILL NOT DELINEATED ATTM.
   
   ..WEISS.. 07/03/2009

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 03, 2009
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