(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240820
SPC AC 240820
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS
DEPICT A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING A MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...AND A MEAN TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...AND MAY FEATURE BOUTS OF
STRONG CONVECTION AS EARLY AS WED/D4...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
SMALLER-SCALE UPPER IMPULSES AND SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON MESOSCALE
DETAILS REMAINS QUITE LOW...PRECLUDING ANY PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT