Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 25, 2014
Updated: Fri Apr 25 08:52:03 UTC 2014
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Apr 28, 2014 - Tue, Apr 29, 2014 D7Thu, May 01, 2014 - Fri, May 02, 2014
D5Tue, Apr 29, 2014 - Wed, Apr 30, 2014 D8Fri, May 02, 2014 - Sat, May 03, 2014
D6Wed, Apr 30, 2014 - Thu, May 01, 2014 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250851
   SPC AC 250851

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY
   FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
   SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...

   ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC ARE RATHER
   CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA
   ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO D5/TUE. THESE WINDS
   WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
   60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DESPITE MULTIPLE DAYS OF EXTENSIVE WARM
   SECTOR CONVECTION...DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH W/SWLYS IN THE
   MID-LEVELS SHOULD RECHARGE/STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...POTENTIALLY
   YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. OF THE TWO
   DAYS HIGHLIGHTED...D5/TUE APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY GREATER OUTBREAK
   POTENTIAL WITH A 90+ KT 500-MB JET EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
   TROUGH.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 25, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities