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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 24, 2016
Updated: Wed Aug 24 08:19:02 UTC 2016
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, Aug 27, 2016 - Sun, Aug 28, 2016 D7Tue, Aug 30, 2016 - Wed, Aug 31, 2016
D5Sun, Aug 28, 2016 - Mon, Aug 29, 2016 D8Wed, Aug 31, 2016 - Thu, Sep 01, 2016
D6Mon, Aug 29, 2016 - Tue, Aug 30, 2016 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 240817
   SPC AC 240817

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
   NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 WITH A PERSISTENT
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
   LAKES ON D4 INTO D5...INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG. BEYOND D5...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH INDIVIDUAL
   FEATURES...BUT IN GENERAL THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIFT NWD
   TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A DECREASING THREAT OF SEVERE
   WEATHER...AND LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
   TROUGHS.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/24/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 24, 2016
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