(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120908
SPC AC 120908
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT EVOLVE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY
/DAY 4/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDING LIMITED GULF-MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES A 15% AREA FOR THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MIGHT NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN THE
NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
BEYOND DAY 4...MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6. GIVEN GENERAL PATTERN OF AN UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE ERN STATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO DAY
7...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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