MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NW AR AND NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 140415Z - 140615Z
   
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
   A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.  THIS IS MOSTLY
   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK BUT DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
   CYCLONE...MUCH OF WHICH IS NOW BECOMING UNDERCUT BY A SHALLOW COLD
   FRONT WHICH HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.  INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE
   RETURN BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABOVE THE STABLE
   SURFACE LAYER...PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE VIGOR OF
   ONGOING STORMS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
   ORGANIZE NEAR THE FRONT...IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR ALONG
   THE WEST EDGE OF A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
   ARKLATEX AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 06-09Z.  HOWEVER...EVEN IN
   ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS...A RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE
   GUSTS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...FRONTAL FORCING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY
   EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
   THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY 09Z.  INSTABILITY
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...BUT
   WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR...COUPLED WITH THE TENDENCY
   FOR CONVECTION TO EITHER FORM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD
   FRONT...OR BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY IT...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/14/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   33429686 34319618 36119503 36479396 36279272 34939265
               32319536 32229727 33429686