MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 112032Z - 112130Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS IS
   INCREASING OVER PARTS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HR.
   
   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z PLACES A DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR
   SPS...WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS N TX.
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW INDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING
   SFC-BASED CU FIELD 40 NW MWL OCCURRING ALONG WIND SHIFT...AND
   ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY 30 N SJT. VERY
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 100
   F...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME A WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB
   OBSERVED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND CONTINUED WEAK CONVERGENCE
   ALONG/NEAR WIND SHIFT AND ATTENDANT DRYLINE...INITIATION OF AT LEAST
   ISOLATED STORMS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW
   EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS...BUT STORM
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   /NEAR 20 KTS/.
   
   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/11/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33209728 32459837 31789923 31309965 30900009 30830083
               31570142 32410155 32870094 33469880 33849790 33859730
               33749705 33209728