MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 112059Z - 112230Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND WRN AR. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
   THESE AREAS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE CAPPING CURRENTLY IN
   PLACE.
   
   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN OK...IN CONCERT WITH VERY HOT AND LOCALLY
   EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO AT LEAST 3000 J PER KG/...MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
   LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STORM INITIATION IS BEING INHIBITED
   BY 1) VERY WARM AIR ALOFT ACTING TO KEEP AIR MASS CAPPED...AND 2)
   LACK OF GREATER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST GUIDANCE PROVIDES MIXED SIGNALS ON WIDESPREAD TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WITH RAPID REFRESH INDICATING STORM INITIATION
   BY 00Z...NAM SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND 18Z HRRR
   SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NWRN AR AND ERN OK IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
   MODEST WLY FLOW AROUND 30KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO
   OCCUR.
   
   ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35199734 34569715 34279680 34049584 34069460 34349388
               35169382 36189406 36629533 36449644 35779727 35199734