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Mesoscale Discussion 1 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN
MA/DOWN EAST ME
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 030143Z - 030645Z
SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ
ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING
-- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A
SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO
UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --
WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG
ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN
CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE
NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST
ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND
VICINITY. THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND
GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST
WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS
AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED
VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW.
..GOSS.. 01/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 43846862 43126813 41386956 40447152 39927461 40227507
41197490 42077209 43047071 43817026 44316938 43846862
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