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Mesoscale Discussion 1
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CST THU JAN 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY INCLUDING LONG ISLAND/CT/RI/SERN
   MA/DOWN EAST ME

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 030143Z - 030645Z

   SUMMARY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
   FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF NRN NJ
   ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND.  ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO -- AND IN LOCAL AREAS EXCEEDING
   -- AN INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
   THE SRN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
   ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT.  AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...A
   SURFACE LOW -- NOW OFF THE COAST OF SERN VA/NERN NC -- IS PROGGED TO
   UNDERGO RELATIVELY RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD OVER
   THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.  

   ATTM...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM ERN VA --
   WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS OBSERVED -- NEWD ACROSS NJ AND LONG
   ISLAND AND INTO SRN CT/RI/SERN MA...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL INDICATED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

   LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL
   WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT -- FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN
   CT/MA/SRN VT/SRN NH/SRN ME...INLAND/WELL N OF THE ONGOING HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...HIGH-RES MODELS -- INCLUDING THE
   NMM4...THE HRRR...AND A LOCAL NSSL 4KM WRF -- DEPICT THE HEAVIEST
   ONSHORE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND
   VICINITY.  THIS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND
   GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST
   WITH TIME...THE SERN NEW ENGLAND VICINITY REMAINS THE AREA OF
   HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SUSTAINED/HEAVY ONSHORE SNOWFALL OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THIS
   AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW...BLIZZARD
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED
   VISIBILITY/BLOWING SNOW.

   ..GOSS.. 01/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   43846862 43126813 41386956 40447152 39927461 40227507
               41197490 42077209 43047071 43817026 44316938 43846862 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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