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Mesoscale Discussion 151 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INTO E-CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231850Z - 232045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...WHILE ADDITIONAL
TSTMS SHOULD FORM SWD ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE.
DISCUSSION...SERN PORTION OF A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS RECENTLY OVERTAKEN
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA...EFFECTIVELY
INHIBITING ANY FURTHER NWD ADVANCEMENT. A RELATIVELY ROBUST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS NOW APPARENT WITH INSOLATION S OF THE
BOUNDARY SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 50S
NOTED IN THE COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM WINDS ARE WEAK IN TBW/MLB
VWP DATA...3-5 KM AGL WINDS AOA 40 KT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED BY TLH/JAX
VWP IN THE DECAYING/STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE MCS. GIVEN THE
ROBUSTNESS OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR AND LYING ON THE
FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD
PERSIST AND BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD
YIELD SWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS INTO E-CNTRL FL IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS/HART.. 02/23/2014
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29368268 29718096 27628030 27608072 28198130 28558199
28858268 29368268
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