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Mesoscale Discussion 407 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OK...ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND ADJACENT
NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261045Z - 261245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE.
DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING ZONE OF LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR AN EVOLVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT
AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...DELINEATING THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARMING
AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY THROUGH THE 12-15Z TIME.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST CORES HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY INCREASING IN
INTENSITY...AND PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL...CAPE APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...WITH CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR
ALSO WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH AT BEST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS A
RESULT...LITTLE SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
..KERR/MEAD.. 04/26/2014
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39269503 39569428 38439295 37029324 35799503 36839544
37699597 39269503
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