MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011635Z - 011900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SERN LA WHERE
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   SW AL SWWD INTO SERN LA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
   EVIDENT ON THE 12Z NEW ORLEANS SOUNDING. IN ADDITION...THE NEW
   ORLEANS WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 75 TO 80 KT AND
   A 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
   SUPERCELL IS ALREADY ONGOING JUST OFFSHORE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST
   OF NEW ORLEANS. THIS CELL SHOULD REMAIN SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES
   INLAND...ENEWD ALONG THE GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CELL MOVES ACROSS SE LA OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   28999012 28939066 29159126 29409164 29809129 30138973
               29878937 29398930 29078981 28999012