MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011746Z - 011945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
   ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND. SOME THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO IS EXPECTED. WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
   UNLIKELY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICT A BAND
   OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST VIRGINIA. MID-LEVEL ASCENT FROM A
   PASSING IMPULSE...AS WELL AS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR A
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...ARE LIKELY AIDING THIS CONVECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ADVANCES EASTWARD...DEVELOPING CELLS WILL ENCOUNTER A
   MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY DEW
   POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800
   J/KG. SUCH DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AIDED BY A CONSIDERABLE
   CLEARING/THINNING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

   WHILE THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF BUOYANCY SUGGESTS UPDRAFT
   ACCELERATION SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG...LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
   /I.E. AMPLE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS AND STORM SPLITS. WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED
   IN STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
   STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAIL GROWTH SHOULD BE LIMITED
   BY A LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY ALOFT...PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL PROMOTE MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL
   REPORTS. WHILE WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
   ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL
   INCREASE IN THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE
   KINEMATIC FIELD.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39917809 40937709 42797451 43157355 43207263 43097246
               42577255 41597305 41187324 40627372 40307410 40167426
               39207577 38927690 38707806 38767875 39037885 39407867
               39917809