MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MN...NW WI...NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101702Z - 101830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM
   FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS
   LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
   FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED
   FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A
   COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
   CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON.
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH
   STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW
   ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   46158989 46999045 47289167 47189288 46309365 45209437
               44459533 43989600 43519614 43199597 43029566 42999482
               43599238 44279078 45238997 46158989