MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...

   VALID 042350Z - 050145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK CONTINUES IN WW 490.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BECOMING
   ESTABLISHED FROM THE WICHITA AREA SWD INTO FAR NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SVR
   HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR. THE ICT VWP INDICATES AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF
   0-1-KM SRH...AND FURTHER GAINS IN LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY OCCUR WITH
   NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...PRIOR TO SUBSTANTIAL
   INCREASES IN MLCINH. A TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE MOST
   DISCRETE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

   MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODES ACCOMPANY ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER N FROM
   NERN KS INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
   EWD/NEWD. DMGG WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
   ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVING AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR.

   ..COHEN.. 10/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37169803 37809811 39249770 39839741 40859675 40069604
               38999608 37789645 37199706 37169803