MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD...FAR SWRN
   MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042308Z - 050115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOW-POTENTIAL/ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY OCCUR WITH TSTMS
   SPREADING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY THROUGH THE
   EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A COMPACT MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION
   APPROACHING THE MID-MO VALLEY. PRECEDING STRONG DEEP ASCENT HAS
   ENCOURAGED THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF
   E-CNTRL TO NERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COOL/MODESTLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE POSITIVE
   THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC -- BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED AS
   LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY IS CONSIDERABLE. AS SUCH...ANY
   TORNADO/DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL...AND THE
   CLUSTER/QUASI-LINEAR MODES SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR-HAIL RISK.
   NEVERTHELESS...A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
   OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 10/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41449718 42829696 43609664 43699593 42659567 41869572
               41459619 41449718