Mesoscale Discussion 0574
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Tue May 12 2020

   Areas affected...Central and eastern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122249Z - 130045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe weather is possible with thunderstorms
   developing over portions of central and eastern Wyoming. Limited
   instability and the lack of stronger forcing will likely mitigate
   the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon water vapor imagery shows lift from a
   shortwave trough embedded within 50 to 60 kt of southwesterly flow
   overspreading portions of Wyoming. 22z surface analysis shows a 1001
   mb low over southwestern Wyoming, drawing a plume of low to middle
   40s F dewpoints northward across the eastern 3rd of the state. A few
   storms have developed near the Bighorn Mountains and northeastern
   Wyoming, near a narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kt
   of vertical shear. Evolution of theses storms is uncertain given the
   weak instability and lack of a stronger forcing mechanism.
   Nevertheless, it seems possible that isolated severe weather could
   develop from any multi cell or weak supercell structures that are
   able to organize before moving east of the narrow instability axis.
   The main threats would be isolated severe hail and damaging winds,
   but the limited coverage and lack of a greater severe threat
   suggests a weather watch is not needed at this time.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43850894 44100866 44360826 44610754 44740600 44640575
               44300521 44090483 43790452 43450421 42680415 42200418
               41930429 41600441 41700490 41900548 42070554 42440602
               42380664 42420751 42490856 42550892 43230904 43850894