Mesoscale Discussion 1038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

   Areas affected...southeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202326Z - 210030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection is forecast to increase across the
   Front Range this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe storms may
   evolve with a risk for damaging winds or hail through this evening.
   Coverage should remain sparse limiting the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KPUX and KFTG showed several
   clusters of weak updrafts have become gradually deeper over the last
   half hour. New storm development over El Paso County Colorado could
   be an early signal for similar storm initiation along the Front
   Range late this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1000-1500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE has developed in response to weak upslope flow and
   dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F. Deep-layer shear is
   adequate for updraft organization in the form of multi-cell clusters
   and perhaps a weak supercell. Model soundings do suggest the ongoing
   convection may be rooted above the surface, which casts doubt on
   severe potential early. However, if storms are able to survive,
   damaging winds and hail may develop given the degree of buoyancy and
   organization potential. The severe weather threat remains
   conditional and somewhat uncertain, but some potential does exist. A
   watch is unlikely for now given the uncertainty and expected limited
   storm coverage.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37220429 37440437 38200472 38730472 39110446 39120377
               38670277 38160244 37590220 37160226 37080240 37060348
               37060395 37220429