Mesoscale Discussion 0581
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado into northwesten
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291852Z - 292115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development may gradually
   consolidate while spreading southeastward across the region through
   3-5 PM MDT, posing some increase in potential for strong wind gusts,
   in addition to a risk for mostly small hail.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the plume of stronger mid-level cooling,
   insolation and deep boundary-layer mixing are contributing to very
   steep low through mid-level lapse rates across much of the central
   high plains.  In the wake of a southeastward advancing surface cold
   front, it appears that the boundary-layer moisture is sufficient to
   contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg, in a corridor
   east of Denver CO toward the Goodland KS vicinity, despite the
   cooler surface temperatures.  

   This destabilization is already contributing to increasing
   thunderstorm development to the southeast of the Interstate 76
   corridor of northeastern Colorado.  Beneath modestly sheared
   westerly deep-layer mean flow (20-30+ kt), further intensification
   of these storms seems probable as they develop east-southeastward. 
   Small to marginally severe hail is possible in stronger cells, along
   with locally strong surface gusts.  It is possible that
   consolidating outflows could contribute to an upscale growing
   cluster with strong surface gusts at least approaching severe limits
   subsequently becoming a bit more widespread.  However, it is not
   clear that a severe weather watch will be needed due to the general
   marginal nature of the threat.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40320241 39840196 39400092 38660077 38520175 39000293
               39440389 39670403 39850306 40320241