Mesoscale Discussion 0582
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

   Areas affected...east-central Kansas into north-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 291923Z - 292200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Monitoring for supercell development along the dryline
   this afternoon. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging
   gusts will all be possible with this activity. A Tornado Watch will
   likely be needed for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery indicates a strong midlevel speed
   maximum approaching KS/OK, where modest midlevel height falls are
   occurring. As this speed maximum continues overspreading the area, a
   NNE-SSW oriented dryline will sharpen across east-central KS into
   north-central OK. The strengthening dryline circulation, combined
   with south-southwesterly low-level flow oriented largely parallel to
   the dryline should allow for isolated convective initiation between
   20Z-23Z. Surface dewpoints in the middle/upper 60s F beneath very
   steep midlevel lapse rates will support a strongly unstable airmass
   (MLCAPE nearing 3000 J/kg), while effective bulk shear increases to
   around 40 knots. These factors, coupled with strongly veering wind
   profiles in the boundary-layer (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) would
   certainly favor supercells capable of strong tornadoes, very large
   hail, and damaging gusts. There is still some uncertainty in the
   overall coverage and location of the severe threat, though trends
   will continue to be monitored for Tornado Watch issuance for parts
   of this area.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 04/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37189793 37609790 38129789 38719776 39699753 39879698
               39849610 39589562 38019557 37269571 36679586 35969606
               35279640 35149662 35129726 35259777 36139789 36559796
               36919796 37189793