Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80...WW
81...WW 82...
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX AND DANGEROUS SITUATION UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MS
DELTA REGION TONIGHT. TWO INTENSE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE UNDERWAY ALONG RETURNING WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW....ONE NOW NEAR ALLEN PARISH AND ANOTHER OVER AMITE
COUNTY MS. INCREASINGLY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
DEEPENING LARGE SCALE CYCLONE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO AID WARM MOIST INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EARLIER EVENING SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED
THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RELATIVELY LIMITED TO SUSTAIN MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...NOT ONLY IS THAT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THE EARLIER SOUNDINGS
PROBABLY DID NOT ADEQUATELY SAMPLE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONT AND WEAK SUB-SYNOPTIC LOWS COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION. THUS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. EVENTUALLY...EXPECT
ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT MORE SQUALL LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 83 TORNADO LA MS CW 280050Z - 280700Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35N JAN/JACKSON MS/ - 35ESE 7R4/INTRACOASTAL CITY LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /20NNE JAN - 56SSW BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 32818844 29579001 29579316 32819172
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 83 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 83
VALID 280430Z - 280540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-005-007-009-019-021-023-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-
045-047-051-053-055-057-059-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113-117-121-125-280540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CALCASIEU
CALDWELL CAMERON CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
LA SALLE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-049-055-061-063-065-067-073-077-
079-085-089-091-099-101-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-147-149-157-
163-280540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN HINDS ISSAQUENA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE
LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON
MARION NESHOBA NEWTON
PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH WALTHALL WARREN
WILKINSON YAZOO
$$
GMZ530-280540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 83
VALID 280235Z - 280340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/28/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-005-007-009-019-021-023-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-
045-047-051-053-055-057-059-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113-117-121-125-280340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CALCASIEU
CALDWELL CAMERON CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
LA SALLE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
$$
MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-049-055-061-063-065-067-073-077-
079-085-089-091-099-101-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-147-149-157-
163-280340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN HINDS ISSAQUENA
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE
LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON
MARION NESHOBA NEWTON
PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH WALTHALL WARREN
WILKINSON YAZOO
$$
GMZ530-280340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.