Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
500 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF
FORT COLLINS COLORADO TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AKRON
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE N OF A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT. SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL CO.
THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 341 SEVERE TSTM CO 071700Z - 072300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20S FCL/FORT COLLINS CO/ - 20ESE AKO/AKRON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /27NW DEN - 15ESE AKO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 40950501 40860287 39270287 39360501
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 341 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 341
VALID 072255Z - 072340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LIC TO
25 SE AKO.
..SPC..06/07/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC073-121-072340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 341
VALID 072035Z - 072140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 975.
..GRAMS..06/07/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-073-075-087-121-123-
072140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 341
VALID 071940Z - 072040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/07/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-073-075-087-121-123-
072040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 341
VALID 071840Z - 071940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/07/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-073-075-087-121-123-
071940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER
BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS
ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
WASHINGTON WELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.