Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN A BAND OVER
W TX/SE NM...IN ADVANCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING
NEWD OVER FAR W TX AND SE NM. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE ONGOING
STORMS...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 363 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 101340Z - 102000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
85WSW LBB/LUBBOCK TX/ - 40SSE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /70WSW LBB - 31SSE CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 34060318 34750001 33020001 32310318
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 363 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 363
VALID 101845Z - 101940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MAF TO
15 ESE HOB TO 25 SE CVS.
..MEAD..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-079-101-107-115-125-153-165-169-189-191-219-263-
269-279-303-305-345-433-445-501-101940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
GAINES GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY STONEWALL
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 363
VALID 101735Z - 101840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MAF TO
15 ENE HOB TO 25 SE CVS.
..MEAD..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-079-101-107-115-125-153-165-169-189-191-219-263-
269-279-303-305-345-433-445-501-101840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
GAINES GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY STONEWALL
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 363
VALID 101630Z - 101740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MAF TO
15 ENE HOB TO 25 SE CVS.
..MEAD..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-075-079-101-107-115-125-153-165-169-189-191-219-263-
269-279-303-305-345-433-445-501-101740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
GAINES GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY STONEWALL
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 363
VALID 101455Z - 101540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 363
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC025-101540-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEA
$$
TXC003-033-045-075-079-101-107-115-125-153-165-169-189-191-219-
263-269-279-303-305-345-433-445-501-101540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN BRISCOE
CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
FLOYD GAINES GARZA
HALE HALL HOCKLEY
KENT KING LAMB
LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY
STONEWALL TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.