Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
FAR EASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
PADUCAH KENTUCKY TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...WW 513...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE ARCING
ROUGHLY W-E INVOF THE KY-TN BORDER...WHERE VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY...MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT...AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND
AND TORNADOES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LOW LVL WAA MAY BE ENHANCED BY A
WEAK IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE MID MS VLY PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 514 TORNADO IL KY MO TN 192205Z - 200500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WSW PAH/PADUCAH KY/ - 20NNE CSV/CROSSVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /51N DYR - 55WNW VXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 37458936 36798494 35638494 36298936
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 514 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 514
VALID 200235Z - 200340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CSV
TO 10 ENE CSV.
..GRAMS..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC175-200340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VAN BUREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 514
VALID 200130Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BNA TO
35 ENE BNA TO 45 N CSV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306.
..GRAMS..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC015-035-041-049-087-133-141-159-175-177-185-200240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANNON CUMBERLAND DE KALB
FENTRESS JACKSON OVERTON
PUTNAM SMITH VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 514
VALID 200030Z - 200140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CKV
TO HOP TO 35 NE HOP.
..GRAMS..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-009-053-057-141-169-171-213-219-227-200140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN CLINTON
CUMBERLAND LOGAN METCALF
MONROE SIMPSON TODD
WARREN
$$
TNC015-021-027-035-037-041-043-049-087-111-133-137-141-147-149-
159-165-169-175-177-185-187-189-200140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CANNON CHEATHAM CLAY
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB
DICKSON FENTRESS JACKSON
MACON OVERTON PICKETT
PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 514
VALID 192335Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE DYR TO
15 SSW PAH TO 45 NNW HOP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304.
..GRAMS..06/19/11
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...OHX...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 514
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-009-035-047-053-057-083-105-141-143-157-169-171-213-219-
221-227-200040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BARREN CALLOWAY
CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND
GRAVES HICKMAN LOGAN
LYON MARSHALL METCALF
MONROE SIMPSON TODD
TRIGG WARREN
$$
TNC005-015-021-027-035-037-041-043-049-079-083-085-087-111-125-
133-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-185-187-189-
200040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CANNON CHEATHAM
CLAY CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS
HENRY HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
JACKSON MACON MONTGOMERY
OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.