Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN COLORADO
EASTERN UTAH
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 905 AM UNTIL 600
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF
BLANDING UTAH TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF VERNAL UTAH. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH WRN UT VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACTING ON A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH PW VALUES OF .70-.90 INCH
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY WITH MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WITH
ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 576 SEVERE TSTM CO UT 301505Z - 010000Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40S 4BL/BLANDING UT/ - 45NNE VEL/VERNAL UT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /55SSW DVC - 34SSW OCS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20035.
LAT...LON 36991119 41021101 41020737 36990776
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 576 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 576
VALID 302050Z - 302140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DRO TO
10 NE GJT TO 35 N CAG.
..NWSSPC..06/30/11
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC029-037-045-051-077-081-091-097-103-107-111-302140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA EAGLE GARFIELD
GUNNISON MESA MOFFAT
OURAY PITKIN RIO BLANCO
ROUTT SAN JUAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 576
VALID 302020Z - 302140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE FMN
TO 5 E GJT TO 35 N CAG.
..NWSSPC..06/30/11
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC029-033-037-045-051-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-111-
113-302140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA DOLORES EAGLE
GARFIELD GUNNISON LA PLATA
MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA
MONTROSE OURAY PITKIN
RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN JUAN
SAN MIGUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 576
VALID 301900Z - 302040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CEZ
TO 45 NW GJT TO 45 SSE RKS.
..NWSSPC..06/30/11
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC029-033-037-045-051-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-111-
113-302040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA DOLORES EAGLE
GARFIELD GUNNISON LA PLATA
MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA
MONTROSE OURAY PITKIN
RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN JUAN
SAN MIGUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 576
VALID 301815Z - 301940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CEZ TO
40 S RKS.
..NWSSPC..06/30/11
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC029-033-037-045-051-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-111-
113-301940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA DOLORES EAGLE
GARFIELD GUNNISON LA PLATA
MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA
MONTROSE OURAY PITKIN
RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN JUAN
SAN MIGUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 576
VALID 301700Z - 301840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE U17
TO 45 SE 4HV TO 20 S EVW.
..NWSSPC..06/30/11
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC029-033-045-067-077-081-083-085-091-103-111-113-301840-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD
LA PLATA MESA MOFFAT
MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY
RIO BLANCO SAN JUAN SAN MIGUEL
$$
UTC007-009-013-019-037-047-301840-
UT
. UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE
GRAND SAN JUAN UINTAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.