Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO OHIO
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1015 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
FINDLAY OHIO TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AKRON OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 624...WW 625...WW 626...
DISCUSSION...TWO BOWING SEVERE MCS/S ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN
GREAT LAKES. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/ESEWD INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIR
MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS WILL UNDERGO HEATING AND MOISTENING
TODAY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 627 SEVERE TSTM OH LE 111415Z - 112100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60W FDY/FINDLAY OH/ - 35ESE CAK/AKRON OH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /17E FWA - 28WSW EWC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 41888481 41598080 39868080 40158481
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 627 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 627
VALID 112030Z - 112140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CMH TO
35 ENE ZZV TO 25 NNW YNG.
PORTIONS OF WW 627 HAVE BEEN SPATIALLY/TEMPORALLY EXTENDED TO 23Z.
..GUYER..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...CLE...ILN...PBZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC135-112140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEWIS
$$
OHC001-013-019-029-031-059-067-071-081-119-131-141-145-157-
112140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BELMONT CARROLL
COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY
HARRISON HIGHLAND JEFFERSON
MUSKINGUM PIKE ROSS
SCIOTO TUSCARAWAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 627
VALID 111725Z - 111840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FWA TO
20 W FDY TO 20 NNE FDY TO 30 SSE DTW.
..LEITMAN..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...CLE...ILN...PBZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC003-005-007-011-013-019-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-041-043-
045-047-049-055-057-059-063-065-067-073-075-077-081-083-085-089-
091-093-097-099-101-103-107-109-113-117-119-123-129-133-139-141-
143-147-149-151-153-155-157-159-169-175-111840-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ASHLAND ASHTABULA
AUGLAIZE BELMONT CARROLL
CHAMPAIGN CLARK COLUMBIANA
COSHOCTON CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA
DARKE DELAWARE ERIE
FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GEAUGA GREENE GUERNSEY
HANCOCK HARDIN HARRISON
HOCKING HOLMES HURON
JEFFERSON KNOX LAKE
LICKING LOGAN LORAIN
MADISON MAHONING MARION
MEDINA MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY MORROW MUSKINGUM
OTTAWA PICKAWAY PORTAGE
RICHLAND ROSS SANDUSKY
SENECA SHELBY STARK
SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS
UNION WAYNE WYANDOT
$$
LEZ143-144-145-146-163-164-165-166-111840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 627
VALID 111625Z - 111740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE FWA TO
30 NW TOL.
..LEITMAN..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...CLE...ILN...PBZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC003-005-007-011-013-019-021-029-031-033-035-039-041-043-051-
055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-081-083-085-089-091-093-095-099-
101-103-107-117-119-123-125-133-137-139-143-147-149-151-153-155-
157-159-161-169-173-175-111740-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ASHLAND ASHTABULA
AUGLAIZE BELMONT CARROLL
CHAMPAIGN COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON
CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DEFIANCE
DELAWARE ERIE FULTON
GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HENRY
HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON
KNOX LAKE LICKING
LOGAN LORAIN LUCAS
MAHONING MARION MEDINA
MERCER MORROW MUSKINGUM
OTTAWA PAULDING PORTAGE
PUTNAM RICHLAND SANDUSKY
SENECA SHELBY STARK
SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS
UNION VAN WERT WAYNE
WOOD WYANDOT
$$
LEZ142-143-144-145-146-162-163-164-165-166-111740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 627
VALID 111535Z - 111640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...IWX...CLE...ILN...PBZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC003-005-007-011-013-019-021-029-031-033-035-039-041-043-051-
055-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-081-083-085-089-091-093-095-099-
101-103-107-117-119-123-125-133-137-139-143-147-149-151-153-155-
157-159-161-169-171-173-175-111640-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ASHLAND ASHTABULA
AUGLAIZE BELMONT CARROLL
CHAMPAIGN COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON
CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DEFIANCE
DELAWARE ERIE FULTON
GEAUGA GUERNSEY HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HENRY
HOLMES HURON JEFFERSON
KNOX LAKE LICKING
LOGAN LORAIN LUCAS
MAHONING MARION MEDINA
MERCER MORROW MUSKINGUM
OTTAWA PAULDING PORTAGE
PUTNAM RICHLAND SANDUSKY
SENECA SHELBY STARK
SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS
UNION VAN WERT WAYNE
WILLIAMS WOOD WYANDOT
$$
LEZ142-143-144-145-146-162-163-164-165-166-111640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH
DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.