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SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND LONG ISLAND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 440 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK
CITY NEW YORK TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND RHODE
ISLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 812. WATCH NUMBER 812 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
440 AM EDT.
DISCUSSION...MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS FCST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WW
AREA IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF FAVORABLE SECTOR OF HURRICANE
IRENE...ASSOCIATED WITH CELLS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE-OUTER CONVECTIVE
BANDS AND MOVING NWWD/ONSHORE. AMIDST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
INLAND EXTENT...REDUCING TORNADO THREAT WITH DISTANCE AWAY FROM
COAST AS PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 13045.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 813 TORNADO CT NJ NY RI CW 280840Z - 281500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
25NW JFK/NEW YORK CITY NY/ - 25ENE BID/BLOCK ISLAND RI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM EITHER SIDE /22NW JFK - 28SSE PVD/
WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 13045.
REPLACES WW 812..CT DE NJ NY CW
LAT...LON 41457423 41887125 40747101 40317400
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 813 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 813
VALID 281235Z - 281340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BID
TO 15 NE BDR TO 25 E POU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075.
..EDWARDS..08/28/11
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 813
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC007-009-011-281340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON
$$
NYC103-281340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SUFFOLK
$$
RIC001-005-009-281340-
RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NEWPORT WASHINGTON
$$
ANZ235-236-237-256-273-340-345-350-281340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RHODE ISLAND SOUND
NARRAGANSETT BAY
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND
OCEAN WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD FROM 25 TO 40 NM
OFFSHORE
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 813
VALID 281140Z - 281240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ISP TO
5 S BDR TO 30 W BDR TO 15 SSW POU TO 5 SSW POU.
..EDWARDS..08/28/11
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 813
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-007-009-011-281240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN
NEW LONDON
$$
NYC079-103-281240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PUTNAM SUFFOLK
$$
RIC001-005-009-281240-
RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NEWPORT WASHINGTON
$$
ANZ235-236-237-256-273-330-340-345-350-281240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RHODE ISLAND SOUND
NARRAGANSETT BAY
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND
OCEAN WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD FROM 25 TO 40 NM
OFFSHORE
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 813
VALID 281020Z - 281140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ISP TO
10 SSW ISP TO 20 NNE JFK TO 20 N EWR.
..EDWARDS..08/28/11
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 813
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-007-009-011-281140-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN
NEW LONDON
$$
NYC079-087-103-119-281140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PUTNAM ROCKLAND SUFFOLK
WESTCHESTER
$$
RIC001-005-009-281140-
RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NEWPORT WASHINGTON
$$
ANZ235-236-237-256-273-330-335-340-345-350-281140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RHODE ISLAND SOUND
NARRAGANSETT BAY
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND
OCEAN WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD FROM 25 TO 40 NM
OFFSHORE
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 813
VALID 280935Z - 281040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073.
..EDWARDS..08/28/11
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 813
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-007-009-011-281040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN
NEW LONDON
$$
NJC003-017-031-281040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN HUDSON PASSAIC
$$
NYC005-047-059-061-079-081-085-087-103-119-281040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRONX KINGS NASSAU
NEW YORK PUTNAM QUEENS
RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK
WESTCHESTER
$$
RIC001-005-009-281040-
RI
. RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NEWPORT WASHINGTON
$$
ANZ235-236-237-256-273-330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-281040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
RHODE ISLAND SOUND
NARRAGANSETT BAY
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND
OCEAN WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD FROM 25 TO 40 NM
OFFSHORE
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY
NEW YORK HARBOR
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.