Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF EVERGREEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142...
DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO OVER E-CNTRL MS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS AL TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED
ALONG SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 12Z JAN SOUNDING APPEARS TO
BE A GOOD PROXY ENVIRONMENT FOR MCS...FEATURING MODERATE-STRONG
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND 60 KT OF DEEP WLY
SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH SOME HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 143 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 051415Z - 052200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW BHM/BIRMINGHAM AL/ - 30WSW GZH/EVERGREEN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /21NW VUZ - 50WNW CEW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 33918613 31258648 31258851 33918823
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 143 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 143
VALID 052030Z - 052140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GZH
TO 35 E GZH.
..KERR..04/05/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-039-053-081-087-109-113-052140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK COVINGTON
ESCAMBIA LEE MACON
PIKE RUSSELL
$$
FLC033-091-113-052140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 143
VALID 051940Z - 052040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MOB
TO 25 W GZH TO 25 WSW TOI.
..KERR..04/05/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-013-025-035-039-041-053-081-087-099-109-113-129-131-
052040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER
CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA LEE
MACON MONROE PIKE
RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-091-113-052040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC041-111-052040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 143
VALID 051830Z - 051940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PIB TO
35 WNW GZH TO 5 SW GAD.
..KERR..04/05/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-017-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-047-051-053-
081-085-087-099-101-109-113-117-121-123-129-131-051940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER CHAMBERS CHILTON
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
RUSSELL SHELBY TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC041-111-153-051940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 143
VALID 051735Z - 051840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/05/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-013-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-047-051-053-057-063-
065-073-075-085-091-099-101-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-
131-051840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
ESCAMBIA FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC041-111-153-051840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 143
VALID 051635Z - 051740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/05/12
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-013-021-023-025-035-037-039-041-047-051-053-057-063-
065-073-075-085-091-099-101-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-
131-051740-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER
CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
ESCAMBIA FAYETTE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR
LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS
ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC041-111-153-051740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.