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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 441. WATCH NUMBER 441 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1255 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCS NEAR NC/VA BORDER WILL MOVE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE AOA
4000 J/KG AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY
STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL
FLOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE CLUSTER AND A
SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 442 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 011655Z - 020000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15WNW GSO/GREENSBORO NC/ - 20NNE HSE/CAPE HATTERAS NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /13NW GSO - 57SE ECG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
REPLACES WW 441..NC TN VA WV
LAT...LON 37048018 36367548 34617548 35318018
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 442 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 442
VALID 012345Z - 020040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW GSO
TO 10 NE FAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348
..COHEN..07/01/12
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC007-123-125-139-153-165-167-020040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANSON MONTGOMERY MOORE
PASQUOTANK RICHMOND SCOTLAND
STANLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 442
VALID 012250Z - 012340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW GSO
TO 10 WSW EWN TO 15 ENE HSE.
..COHEN..07/01/12
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC007-031-055-123-125-133-139-153-165-167-012340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANSON CARTERET DARE
MONTGOMERY MOORE ONSLOW
PASQUOTANK RICHMOND SCOTLAND
STANLY
$$
AMZ135-012340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 442
VALID 012150Z - 012240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GSO TO
30 S RDU TO 30 NNE EWN TO 15 N ECG.
..COHEN..07/01/12
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC007-013-031-037-049-051-055-057-061-079-085-093-095-101-103-
105-107-123-125-133-137-139-147-151-153-163-165-167-177-187-191-
012240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANSON BEAUFORT CARTERET
CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND
DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN
GREENE HARNETT HOKE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LEE LENOIR MONTGOMERY
MOORE ONSLOW PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PITT RANDOLPH
RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND
STANLY TYRRELL WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
AMZ135-012240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 442
VALID 012045Z - 012140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GSO TO
30 S RDU TO 20 ENE RZZ.
..GRAMS..07/01/12
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC007-013-015-029-031-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-065-073-
079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-123-125-127-131-133-
137-139-143-147-151-153-163-165-167-177-187-191-195-012140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE
CAMDEN CARTERET CHATHAM
CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND
CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON
DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES
GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT
HERTFORD HOKE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY
MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PITT RANDOLPH
RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND
STANLY TYRRELL WASHINGTON
WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-ANZ633-012140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 442
VALID 011935Z - 012040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GSO TO
15 W RDU TO 10 WNW AVC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336.
..GRAMS..07/01/12
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC007-013-015-029-031-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-065-069-
073-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-123-125-127-131-
133-137-139-143-147-151-153-163-165-167-177-181-183-185-187-191-
195-012040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE
CAMDEN CARTERET CHATHAM
CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND
CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON
DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GREENE HALIFAX
HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LEE LENOIR MARTIN
MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH
NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT
RANDOLPH RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND STANLY TYRRELL
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC025-081-595-012040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK GREENSVILLE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
EMPORIA
$$
AMZ130-135-ANZ633-012040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 442
VALID 011835Z - 011940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GSO TO
10 SSE DAN TO 30 NE DAN.
..GRAMS..07/01/12
ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC001-007-013-015-029-031-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061-063-
065-069-073-077-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-123-
125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-163-165-167-177-
181-183-185-187-191-195-011940-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT
BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET
CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE
DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX
HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE
HYDE JOHNSTON JONES
LEE LENOIR MARTIN
MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH
NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE
PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PERSON PITT RANDOLPH
RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND
STANLY TYRRELL VANCE
WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC025-037-081-111-117-595-011940-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK CHARLOTTE GREENSVILLE
LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
EMPORIA
$$
AMZ130-135-ANZ633-011940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
CURRITUCK SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.