Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 535 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND N OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. WITH SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO
AROUND 30 KT FROM THE WEST AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT --
GIVEN DEGREE OF OBSERVED CAPE -- TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY...THOUGH POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL BOWING CLUSTERS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...GOSS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 488 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 082235Z - 090500Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NW MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 35SE JBR/JONESBORO AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /45NW MLC - 27NNW MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 36339641 36409020 34529020 34459641
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 488 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 488
VALID 090455Z - 090500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DUA TO
30 WNW HRO.
WW 488 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 090500Z.
..GARNER..08/09/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-055-
063-065-067-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-105-111-
113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-
149-090500-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LOGAN LONOKE MADISON
MARION MISSISSIPPI MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MOC069-155-090500-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC061-077-079-121-135-090500-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 488
VALID 090325Z - 090440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DUA TO
30 WNW HRO.
..GARNER..08/09/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-055-
063-065-067-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-105-111-
113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-
149-090440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LOGAN LONOKE MADISON
MARION MISSISSIPPI MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MOC069-155-090440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC061-077-079-121-135-090440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 488
VALID 090230Z - 090340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DUA TO
30 WNW HRO.
..GARNER..08/09/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-055-
063-065-067-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-105-111-
113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-
149-090340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LOGAN LONOKE MADISON
MARION MISSISSIPPI MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MOC069-155-090340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC061-077-079-121-135-090340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 488
VALID 090150Z - 090240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DUA TO
30 WNW HRO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674
..MOSIER..08/09/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-055-
063-065-067-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-105-111-
113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-
149-090240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY
CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CRITTENDEN
CROSS FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GREENE
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LOGAN LONOKE MADISON
MARION MISSISSIPPI MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MOC069-155-090240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC061-077-079-121-135-090240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 488
VALID 090045Z - 090140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..08/09/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-
055-063-065-067-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-105-
111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-
147-149-090140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LEE LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY POINSETT POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-090140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC001-021-037-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-107-111-121-131-135-
143-145-090140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CREEK
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 488
VALID 082345Z - 090040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..08/08/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-037-045-047-049-051-
055-063-065-067-071-075-077-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-105-
111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-
147-149-090040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LEE LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY POINSETT POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MOC069-155-090040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC001-021-037-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-107-111-121-131-135-
143-145-090040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CREEK
DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
PITTSBURG ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.