Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TODAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAYCROSS GEORGIA TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCALA FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 86 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 201500Z - 202200Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NW AYS/WAYCROSS GA/ - 20SE OCF/OCALA FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /33WNW AMG - 43NW ORL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 31798179 28958075 28958323 31798433
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 86 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 86
VALID 201835Z - 201940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CTY
TO 25 N GNV TO 30 SSE AYS TO 30 N SSI.
..JEWELL..04/20/15
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-017-019-031-035-053-075-083-101-107-109-119-201940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS
CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER
HERNANDO LEVY MARION
PASCO PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SUMTER
$$
GAC039-049-127-277-201940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CHARLTON GLYNN
TIFT
$$
AMZ450-452-454-GMZ850-201940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.