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Mesoscale Discussion 459
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

   Areas affected...parts of northeast Oklahoma...southeast
   Kansas...and eastward into central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191250Z - 191445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail exceeding severe levels may occur over the
   next few hours with isolated stronger/elevated storms.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows regeneration of elevated
   convection over the past hour, atop a remnant outflow from prior
   convection.  The storms are occurring near the nose of a veering of
   the low-level jet, within an environment featuring steep mid-level
   lapse rates -- and thus moderate elevated CAPE.

   Shear through the cloud-bearing layer is not particularly strong,
   with generally unidirectional southwest flow.  As such, storms
   should remain only weakly organized -- with perhaps occasional/weak
   mid-level rotation.  Further, as the low-level jet diminishes
   through the morning, storms should eventually decrease in intensity
   as well.  In the mean time however, hail generally in the 1 to 1.5"
   range may occur with the most vigorous storms.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38319185 37439211 36879371 36709425 36299605 36389647
               36939670 37779663 38319570 38759439 39049274 38319185 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2018
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