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Mesoscale Discussion 99
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

   Areas affected...extreme eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle
   into far western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022347Z - 030145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind or hail are possible with
   the stronger thunderstorms this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity
   ahead of a surface cold front as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads
   western TX (per 23Z mesoanalysis). These storms are preceded by 8+
   C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, which should support continued
   development and intensification given low to mid 60s F surface
   temperatures and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings and 23Z
   mesoanalysis also show weak deep-layer shear, characterized by
   generally short hodographs. While some severe wind and hail cannot
   be ruled out, the severe threat is expected to remain generally
   isolated given the weaker shear. Storms may gradually diminish in
   intensity later this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 02/02/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34080034 34960057 35410032 35669990 35679900 35509841
               34999816 34759822 34529874 34040000 34080034 

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