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Mesoscale Discussion 99
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and extreme southwest

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 28...

   Valid 250011Z - 250215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat will spread east across southern Louisiana
   into extreme southwest Mississippi this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across
   the lower MS Valley this evening ahead of an upper low ejecting
   across north-central TX. In response to this upper feature, surface
   low is now advancing inland across southwest LA, and modified Gulf
   air mass has returned across southern LA Parishes. Over the last few
   hours, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced to the latitude of
   LFT immediately ahead of the forced squall line. Forecast soundings
   suggest mid-upper 60s surface dew points are needed for
   near-surface-based buoyancy while supercells north of this are most
   likely appreciably elevated. Numerous discrete supercells are
   evolving within the warm advection zone ahead of the line, and many
   of these updrafts are likely elevated. As moisture increases across
   southern LA the prospect for near-surface-based updrafts will
   increase, along with the threat for tornadoes with these supercells.
   Otherwise, embedded supercells remain possible along the advancing
   squall line.

   ..Darrow.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29329339 31239199 30739111 28699155 29329339 

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