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Mesoscale Discussion 178
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0178
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

   Valid 132226Z - 140030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across southeast New Mexico
   and far west Texas over the next few hours. Wind damage, hail and an
   isolated tornado threat are expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a trough extending north
   to south across south-central New Mexico. A corridor of low-level
   moisture where warm advection is occurring, is located to the east
   of the surface trough. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid
   60s to lower 70s F slowed by the overall cloudiness evident on
   satellite imagery. The heating of the boundary layer has allowed
   MLCAPE to the increase to between 1000 and 1200 J/kg along the moist
   corridor, as estimated by the RAP. In response, scattered
   thunderstorms have developed just to the west of the instability
   axis from east of El Paso northward to west of Tucumcari. These
   thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeastward into
   increasing instability over the next hour or two. This combined with
   strong deep-layer shear, evident on the Midland WSR-88D VWP will be
   favorable for severe storms. Large hail will be possible with the
   stronger updrafts, especially with storms that rotate. As downdraft
   maturation takes place within the stronger cells, wind damage will
   also be possible. A tornado or two could also occur, mainly with
   storms that exhibit supercell characteristics.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/13/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34640523 34110590 32770616 31840619 31100598 30430500
               30330430 30980314 32940319 33900332 34770382 34860467

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