|Mesoscale Discussion 178|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...
Valid 132226Z - 140030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across southeast New Mexico
and far west Texas over the next few hours. Wind damage, hail and an
isolated tornado threat are expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a trough extending north
to south across south-central New Mexico. A corridor of low-level
moisture where warm advection is occurring, is located to the east
of the surface trough. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid
60s to lower 70s F slowed by the overall cloudiness evident on
satellite imagery. The heating of the boundary layer has allowed
MLCAPE to the increase to between 1000 and 1200 J/kg along the moist
corridor, as estimated by the RAP. In response, scattered
thunderstorms have developed just to the west of the instability
axis from east of El Paso northward to west of Tucumcari. These
thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeastward into
increasing instability over the next hour or two. This combined with
strong deep-layer shear, evident on the Midland WSR-88D VWP will be
favorable for severe storms. Large hail will be possible with the
stronger updrafts, especially with storms that rotate. As downdraft
maturation takes place within the stronger cells, wind damage will
also be possible. A tornado or two could also occur, mainly with
storms that exhibit supercell characteristics.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34640523 34110590 32770616 31840619 31100598 30430500
30330430 30980314 32940319 33900332 34770382 34860467
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