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Mesoscale Discussion 188
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0188
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

   Areas affected...Near/east of the Pecos River

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171955Z - 172230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development seems
   increasingly probable through the 5-7 PM CDT time frame.  A severe
   weather watch may be needed at some point.

   DISCUSSION...One low-amplitude short wave impulse appears in the
   process of progressing through broader-scale anticyclonic mid-level
   flow across southwest and west Texas.  As this continues, at least
   weak mid-level cooling is expected to contribute to further
   weakening of inhibition along a sharpening dryline, which is now
   north and east of Wink and east of Fort Stockton.

   In the presence of steep/steepening lapse rates, surface dew points
   near and above 60F may already be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE
   in excess of 1500 J/kg along the dryline, where strengthening of 500
   mb flow to 40-50 kt during the past couple of hours has resulted in
   increasingly favorable deep layer shear for supercells.  

   With some further destabilization possible as inhibition weakens,
   model output generally suggests that discrete thunderstorm
   development is possible by 22Z, before coverage gradually increases
   with at least some upscale growth through 00Z.  North of the higher
   terrain near the Rio Grande River, this may commence near the
   surface front, northwest through north of Midland, aided by forcing
   for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, before
   gradually developing southward along the dryline, near/east of the
   Pecos River.  Strongest storms probably will pose a risk for severe
   hail and locally strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 03/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   28680229 29250220 29710267 30440262 31070264 31640300
               32220350 32510319 32500265 32110230 31660195 31320172
               30040159 29320157 28270194 28130222 28680229 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2020
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