|Mesoscale Discussion 189|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Areas affected...Texas Rolling Plains and Big Country
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52...
Valid 172001Z - 172200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 52
SUMMARY...Elevated convection capable of large hail continues to
move eastward across Texas Rolling Plains and into northwest Texas.
Surface-based convection is beginning to develop south of the warm
front. This area will be monitored for a watch expansion or possibly
a new watch in the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent just ahead of a weak mid-level
shortwave is overspreading the southern High Plains with warm air
advection resulting in elevated convection across the Texas Rolling
Plains and into northwest Texas. Marginally severe hail has been
reported with this cluster of storms as it moved eastward across the
Cap Rock and Rolling Plains this morning and afternoon. Falling
mid-level heights/temperatures and surface heating have increased
buoyancy/instability with stronger lower/mid-level winds beginning
to arrive helping to strengthen shear.
These storms have acted to reinforce the warm front, although it has
slowly lifted northward across northwest/north Texas during the day.
Cloud cover has thinned south of the boundary helping to increase
surface temperatures with attempts at surface-based convection
evident on visible satellite imagery. Deeper convection has begun to
initiate along/just south of the warm front, and there is potential
for one or two storms to develop into supercells increasing the
tornado/wind threat. Veering low-level flow has strengthened per
KDYX VAD and will likely to continue to do so through the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33900042 33989921 33869839 33329831 32579857 32289957
31980048 32270115 32940120 33540076 33900042
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