Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019
Areas affected...Parts of central and northeastern Alabama into
Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...
Valid 150157Z - 150400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29 continues.
SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms linger across parts of central
through east central Alabama, but severe weather potential, in
general, is in the process of diminishing. If trends continue as
currently anticipated through the next hour or two, it is possible
that the remaining valid portions of the watch could be cancelled
prior to the scheduled Midnight CDT (1 AM EDT) expiration.
DISCUSSION...Considerable general weakening of discrete pre-frontal
thunderstorm activity has been evident for the past hour or so in
radar and lightning data. A south-southwesterly 850 mb jet axis
lingers as far south as northwestern Georgia into central Alabama,
but wind speeds are gradually weakening, and a relatively moist
unstable boundary layer along it is gradually becoming less unstable
with the loss of daytime heating.
There has been some increase in convection to the northwest and west
of the region, across the Cumberland Plateau into the lower
Mississippi Valley, just ahead of where a corridor of weak to
moderate boundary layer instability appears to linger near a remnant
dry line. However, potential for substantive further
intensification of this activity seems limited, in the presence of
neutral to rising mid-level heights in the wake of the cyclone over
the Great Lakes region, before the trailing cold front overtakes the
dry line/instability axis later this evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33568675 33888594 34498500 34448408 33598446 32448639
32388712 32248812 33568675