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Mesoscale Discussion 221
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

   Areas affected...the central Carolinas into southeast Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151936Z - 152200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage should gradually increase over the next few
   hours, and a few may produce locally strong wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Heating has contributed to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE from
   GA into SC, with lesser values northeastward into VA. This zone of
   relatively warm air exists in advance of a cold front, now moving
   into central GA and across the western Carolinas where a band of
   precipitation exists ahead of the front.

   Visible imagery show increasing CU fields as well as a few weak
   thunderstorms along the front especially from GA into SC where
   heating is strongest. Forecast soundings show a warm layer below 700
   mb which is likely contributing to slow storm growth.

   As heating persists, a few strong storms are expected to develop.
   Generally long, straight hodographs suggest cellular activity, but
   mixed storm mode is possible as well with line segments. Given
   southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt, some storms may produce
   marginally severe wind gusts. Small hail cannot be ruled out with
   the strongest cores.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/15/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33897919 33458014 33158113 33198167 33468199 33668196
               34058163 34498125 35098018 35677952 36097874 36537793
               37107706 37297634 37137590 36777579 34617815 34097878

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