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Mesoscale Discussion 221
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

   Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132331Z - 140100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across
   northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this
   region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in
   place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would
   indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40
   corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage
   County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains
   limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a
   thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large
   hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing
   across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence
   in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to
   be needed.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539
               37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691
               35219665 35279600 35599543 

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