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Mesoscale Discussion 438
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MD 438 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into far
   southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171532Z - 171800Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may produce hail through midday, but a watch
   unlikely for this activity. A greater threat of severe storms is
   anticipated later today.

   DISCUSSION...Storms currently exist along a line from just east of
   LBL to near HHF, and are roughly oriented along a zone of 700 mb
   warm advection. As such, the inflow into these storms is likely
   elevated above the moist boundary layer, but very steep lapse rates
   aloft are maximizing updraft strength. Further, northwesterly flow
   aloft is providing shear in the cloud-bearing layer and favoring
   sustained storms. Visible imagery does show additional lift/elevated
   CU into southwest OK, suggesting a possible southward extension of
   this storm complex should they persist.

   ..Jewell.. 05/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36300055 37680111 38250051 38199972 36979897 36259866
               35669875 35179905 35149967 35650009 36300055 

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