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Mesoscale Discussion 631
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0631
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

   Areas affected...southeast Arkansas...Mississippi...and far western

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030632Z - 030830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms across far eastern
   Arkansas and northern Mississippi will continue to quickly move
   south-southeast. Strong, gusty winds will be possible with this
   cluster for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived thunderstorm cluster, with history of
   producing wind damage, is moving quickly south-southeast across far
   eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Radar inspection of this
   thunderstorm cluster suggests it has developed internal
   structure/organization, including rear-inflow jet, supportive
   potentially strong surface winds for at least the next few hours.
   Extrapolation of current storm motions/trends suggests this
   thunderstorm complex will arrive in the I-20 corridor in the next
   2-3 hours.  Additionally, thunderstorm intensity has increased with
   a thunderstorm/thunderstorm cluster across northeast Mississippi.
   00Z JAN sounding, along with recent mesoanalysis data, suggests
   effective bulk shear around 30 knots and a sufficient CAPE reservoir
   to maintain ongoing thunderstorms. 

   Biggest question regarding severe potential centers around the
   thunderstorm clusters' ability to bring the strong winds downward
   through an increasingly stable nocturnal boundary layer. An
   increasingly hostile low-level environment (such as decreasing
   low-level lapse rates, increasing convective inhibition) should
   decrease the ability to mix down strong winds. However, the ability
   of current thunderstorms to produce wind damage suggests the ability
   to overcome this detriment and a severe thunderstorm watch is
   currently being considered.

   ..Marsh/Edwards.. 06/03/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33509128 34379106 34988895 33828800 32818840 32159015
               32809111 33509128 

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