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Mesoscale Discussion 699
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0699
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...western to central Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

   Valid 081748Z - 081915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203

   SUMMARY...A mix of discrete cells and clusters should spread
   east-southeast across parts of the western Carolinas through late
   afternoon. Expansion of WW 203 and/or an additional severe
   thunderstorm watch appears likely.

   DISCUSSION...Convective evolution of multiple supercells and
   clusters has been decidedly southeastward over the past couple hours
   along large-scale outflow. This has diminished the overall severe
   threat in northeast TN. Meanwhile, a couple supercells embedded with
   the cluster persist near the Asheville, NC area, while a separate
   discrete supercell was located farther south to the west of
   Greenville, SC. Surface temperatures across the lower Piedmont area
   have warmed through the mid to upper 80s, which will likely support
   a continued severe hail and damaging wind threat downstream. The 16Z
   HRRR appears to be an outlier with its indication of convection
   diminishing as it spreads east of the higher terrain. While
   low-level flow is weak per GSP VWP data, abundant mid to upper speed
   shear will favor embedded supercells and clusters persisting,
   reasonably simulated by the 12Z NSSL-MPAS.

   ..Grams.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35898219 35708037 35318000 34838000 34128014 33758078
               33938167 34278253 34738311 35068355 35398346 35398346

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