Mesoscale Discussion 0877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023
Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into west Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...
Valid 262303Z - 270200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.
SUMMARY...Corridors of severe potential are forecast to develop
through this evening. Damaging hail and wind, as well as a couple
tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION...As of 23Z, several widely spaced areas of storms
extended from east-central NM southward toward the Davis Mtns, with
large hail the primary threat. While these storms are relatively far
apart, visible imagery and surface analysis show a wide area of
potential with a moist, unstable air mass in place.
A notable supercell over eastern Torrance County, NM will likely
remain severe as it moves east/southeast this evening. MLCAPE is
over 2000 J/kg in this area, with instability evidenced by towering
cumulus downstream. Damaging hail will remain likely, with
wind-driven hail possible if the storm grows/intensifies this
Other cells are attempting to develop into Eddy County NM, with a
substantial cumulus field noted, extending northwestward from
Roswell westward to the Sacramentos. Any cells that develop in this
region will have a very favorable environment for severe hail and
wind as they proceed east/southeast toward the Midland TX area.
Southeasterly low-level winds will maximize storm relative inflow
aiding storm longevity. Low-level shear will also be sufficient for
a couple tornadoes, especially for deviant/rightward motion off the
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29990327 30270410 30720443 32140527 32760539 33340557
34050569 34320565 34530552 34790529 34940499 35000443
34960395 34630332 34080278 33440231 32880208 32330188
31440172 30730162 30310179 30000216 29990327