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Mesoscale Discussion 877
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0877
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0603 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into west Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...

   Valid 262303Z - 270200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.

   SUMMARY...Corridors of severe potential are forecast to develop
   through this evening. Damaging hail and wind, as well as a couple
   tornadoes will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 23Z, several widely spaced areas of storms
   extended from east-central NM southward toward the Davis Mtns, with
   large hail the primary threat. While these storms are relatively far
   apart, visible imagery and surface analysis show a wide area of
   potential with a moist, unstable air mass in place. 

   A notable supercell over eastern Torrance County, NM will likely
   remain severe as it moves east/southeast this evening. MLCAPE is
   over 2000 J/kg in this area, with instability evidenced by towering
   cumulus downstream. Damaging hail will remain likely, with
   wind-driven hail possible if the storm grows/intensifies this

   Other cells are attempting to develop into Eddy County NM, with a
   substantial cumulus field noted, extending northwestward from
   Roswell westward to the Sacramentos. Any cells that develop in this
   region will have a very favorable environment for severe hail and
   wind as they proceed east/southeast toward the Midland TX area.
   Southeasterly low-level winds will maximize storm relative inflow
   aiding storm longevity. Low-level shear will also be sufficient for
   a couple tornadoes, especially for deviant/rightward motion off the

   ..Jewell.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29990327 30270410 30720443 32140527 32760539 33340557
               34050569 34320565 34530552 34790529 34940499 35000443
               34960395 34630332 34080278 33440231 32880208 32330188
               31440172 30730162 30310179 30000216 29990327 

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