SPC AC 281240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with
   the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few
   tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.

   ...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight...
   Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move
   northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by
   tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward
   from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift
   southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX.

   The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive
   overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward
   across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX. 
   Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of
   the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too
   aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake.  There may
   be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of
   an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over
   OK/MO.  However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to
   support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities.

   Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer
   moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the
   ArkLaTex southward.  Vertical shear will be sufficient for
   supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs
   appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold
   pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today
   from southeast OK/western AR northward.  Thus, the main threat for
   any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow
   from the ArkLaTex southward.  It appears possible that additional
   storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear
   cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western
   LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage
   and occasional large hail.

   ..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024

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