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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 21, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 21 12:45:21 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190321 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190321 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 211245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

   Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOUR CORNERS
   AREA TO THE TRANS-PECOS OF FAR WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated, marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible in the 
   early afternoon near the Four Corners and then around early evening
   south into the Trans-Pecos of far west Texas.

   ...Four Corners to the Trans-Pecos...
   Primary change is to expand the Marginal Risk south into the
   Trans-Pecos.

   Episodic thunderstorm events are expected through this evening in
   association with an upper trough over the Southwest. Convection is
   already ongoing owing to forcing for ascent associated with a lead
   shortwave impulse over central AZ. This impulse should reach the
   Four Corners by mid-afternoon before tracking towards southwest WY,
   while an upstream impulse reaches the Lower CO River Valley by
   evening. The early timing of the lead impulse will be unfavorable
   for substantial destabilization in the Four Corners area. But meager
   buoyancy (SBCAPE below 500 J/kg) may develop amid strong 0-3 km
   shear to warrant a threat for a marginally severe storm or two. 

   A secondary corridor of marginal severe storm threat may exist
   towards early evening as weak mid-level height falls occur with the
   approach of the latter impulse. In conjunction with the opportunity
   for recovery in the wake of early morning convection and greater
   duration of boundary-layer heating, a confined plume of SBCAPE
   around 500 J/kg may develop near the Rio Grande Valley from central
   NM into far west TX. Along the southeast periphery of moderate
   deep-layer shear, a couple mid-level rotating updrafts may form
   capable of marginal severe hail and wind.

   ..Grams/Broyles.. 03/21/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: March 21, 2019
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