SPC AC 081230

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

   Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may
   develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of
   the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

   ...Florida...
   Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and
   vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain
   sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting
   deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton
   moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early
   Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand
   through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to
   gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight
   (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear
   is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some
   potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout
   threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery
   of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which
   shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight
   into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the
   Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat
   for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly
   in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected
   to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT
   Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and
   the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast.

   ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z