SPC AC 011242
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO....
Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail may accompany the stronger
storms across parts of the Four Corners today.
An upper low will remain over eastern ID today, with broad and
moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft across much of the southwest
states. A consensus of CAM solutions show the development of
scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of southern UT, ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough now over northern NV. Despite
dewpoints only in the 40s, strong heating and steep low/mid level
lapse rates will result in weak but sufficient CAPE for a few
high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and perhaps hail.
This activity will spread eastward into the western CO later today
before weakening after sunset.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z