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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 1, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 12:28:16 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200401 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200401 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011228

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0728 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2020

   Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   WESTERN NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe gusts and/or hail may occur this afternoon over
   parts of the north-central Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, a slowly progressive pattern will feature two
   broad/messy cyclones -- the western one over much of southwestern
   Canada and the northwestern CONUS, and the second over the Northeast
   and adjoining Atlantic.  The intervening upper ridge -- initially
   over the Plains States -- will amplify and move eastward to the
   Mississippi Valley and northwestern ON by 12Z tomorrow.

   The 11Z surface analysis showed a cold front, related to the
   northeastern cyclone, moving southward over south FL and the central
   Gulf.  This front will proceed southward off the Keys and across
   more of the central/southern Gulf through the period.  Farther
   northwest, a low was analyzed over east-central WY, along a cold
   front that extended across central ND, western SD, and northwestern
   WY.  This front should move to the eastern Dakotas and north-central
   through southwestern NE around 00Z.  By 12Z, the cold front should
   arc across western MN, south-central NE and southeastern CO.

   ...North-central Plains...
   Isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected
   to form this afternoon near the front, from parts of western NE
   northeastward to eastern SD.  A marginal, isolated potential exists
   for strong-severe gusts or hail, which will be short-lived.  The
   threat will be extinguished early in the evening by a combination of
   frontal undercutting and rapid boundary-layer cooling/stabilization
   in the warm sector.

   Weak but marginally adequate moisture will be in place, with
   advection and vertical mixing counterbalancing each other to a great
   extent.  Surface dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s are expected
   over this corridor, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.  Low-level
   lapse rates will approach dry adiabatic with afternoon heating,
   contributing to MLCAPE 200-700 J/kg, with highest MLCAPE values (and
   greater deep shear) more probable over the SD part of the area under
   cooler conditions aloft.  Well-mixed subcloud layers may support
   near-severe-level acceleration parcels to the surface in the most
   vigorous downdrafts.

   ..Edwards/Mosier.. 04/01/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: April 01, 2020
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