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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 20, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 20 19:56:09 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20181120 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181120 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 201956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

   Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the Florida
   Peninsula, and late tonight in the vicinity of southern New Mexico
   and far west Texas.

   The only change to the previous outlook was to adjust the Florida
   thunderstorm area based on the current position of the front. 
   Otherwise, the previous outlook reasoning remains valid.

   ..Bunting.. 11/20/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northeastern Gulf of
   Mexico will continue eastward across north FL today. A relatively
   moist/modestly unstable air mass exists along and south of a
   slow-moving front. A couple of strong/more organized storms may
   occur today, such as recently (~1545Z) along the FL east coast,
   especially near the front in the presence of relatively strong
   deep-layer shear. However, it seems likely that weak winds in the
   lower troposphere, along with weak mid-level lapse rates and
   weakening low-level convergence, will keep severe-weather potential
   at a minimum. The thunderstorm threat across FL is generally
   expected to diminish by mid/late evening.

   ...Far west Texas/southeast New Mexico tonight...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Baja will continue
   to move eastward toward far west TX by early Wednesday. Some
   low/mid-level moistening is expected in the zone of ascent preceding
   this trough as it reaches far west TX/southern NM tonight. Weak
   buoyancy rooted near or just above 700 mb will be possible
   overnight, when a few lightning flashes may occur with the weak
   elevated convection.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: November 20, 2018
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