SPC AC 161948
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Showers with occasional/embedded lightning will be possible from
portions of Oregon and California into the Great Basin today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms may also evolve late tonight over
parts of the Tennessee Valley area.
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/
As an upper trough over the Northeast pivots northeastward
into/across the Canadian Maritimes, a second/large trough over the
western states will gradually expand with time, with cyclonic flow
to encompass the entire western and central U.S. by the end of the
At the surface, a baroclinic zone will linger west-to-east from the
Southeast to the southern Plains. A frontal wave is progged to
shift eastward out of the southern Plains and into the
mid-Mississippi Valley region during the second half of the period,
with warm advection ahead of the wave, and a cold air surge into the
southern Plains in its wake.
Widespread showers, and occasional/embedded lightning in some areas,
is expected across a large portion of the western U.S. today, as
cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates reside across the area
within the broadening upper trough. The greatest lightning risk
appears to exist from portions of California and Oregon into the
Late tonight, increasing low-level warm advection across the
mid-Mississippi/Tennessee Valley region should result in elevated
convective development, and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms.
No severe weather is expected.
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