SPC AC 281939
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2022
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A thunderstorm or two may form around daybreak over parts of east
Texas and western Louisiana.
No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022/
An upper trough is forecast to deepen rapidly later today and
tonight across the southwest states, with low-level warm/moist
advection strengthening after 06z over east TX. Forecast soundings
suggest the mid-level capping inversion will be eroding through the
overnight period, but it is uncertain whether deep convection will
commence before or after 12z. Given the diversity of CAM solutions
regarding this issue, will add a small thunderstorm forecast area
for the last hour or two of the period to parts of east TX and
western LA. No severe storms are expected until the Day2 period.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z