SPC AC 201956
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across the Florida
Peninsula, and late tonight in the vicinity of southern New Mexico
and far west Texas.
The only change to the previous outlook was to adjust the Florida
thunderstorm area based on the current position of the front.
Otherwise, the previous outlook reasoning remains valid.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico will continue eastward across north FL today. A relatively
moist/modestly unstable air mass exists along and south of a
slow-moving front. A couple of strong/more organized storms may
occur today, such as recently (~1545Z) along the FL east coast,
especially near the front in the presence of relatively strong
deep-layer shear. However, it seems likely that weak winds in the
lower troposphere, along with weak mid-level lapse rates and
weakening low-level convergence, will keep severe-weather potential
at a minimum. The thunderstorm threat across FL is generally
expected to diminish by mid/late evening.
...Far west Texas/southeast New Mexico tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Baja will continue
to move eastward toward far west TX by early Wednesday. Some
low/mid-level moistening is expected in the zone of ascent preceding
this trough as it reaches far west TX/southern NM tonight. Weak
buoyancy rooted near or just above 700 mb will be possible
overnight, when a few lightning flashes may occur with the weak
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