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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 16, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 16 19:48:41 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190216 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190216 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 161948

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers with occasional/embedded lightning will be possible from
   portions of Oregon and California into the Great Basin today. 
   Showers and a few thunderstorms may also evolve late tonight over
   parts of the Tennessee Valley area.

   ...20Z Update...
   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Gleason.. 02/16/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

   ...Discussion...
   As an upper trough over the Northeast pivots northeastward
   into/across the Canadian Maritimes, a second/large trough over the
   western states will gradually expand with time, with cyclonic flow
   to encompass the entire western and central U.S. by the end of the
   period.

   At the surface, a baroclinic zone will linger west-to-east from the
   Southeast to the southern Plains.  A frontal wave is progged to
   shift eastward out of the southern Plains and into the
   mid-Mississippi Valley region during the second half of the period,
   with warm advection ahead of the wave, and a cold air surge into the
   southern Plains in its wake.

   Widespread showers, and occasional/embedded lightning in some areas,
   is expected across a large portion of the western U.S. today, as
   cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates reside across the area
   within the broadening upper trough.  The greatest lightning risk
   appears to exist from portions of California and Oregon into the
   Great Basin.

   Late tonight, increasing low-level warm advection across the
   mid-Mississippi/Tennessee Valley region should result in elevated
   convective development, and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms.

   No severe weather is expected.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: February 16, 2019
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