Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 24, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 24 19:33:45 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180924 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180924 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241933

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
   PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this
   afternoon/evening across a part of the north-central High Plains.

   ...Discussion...

   No changes have been made to the marginal risk area as previous
   forecast remains valid. Deeper forcing for ascent resulting from a
   progressive shortwave trough is spreading eastward through the
   central High Plains coincident with steep lapse rates but with
   limited low-level moisture and instability. A few strong storms with
   a threat for hail and gusty wind are possible within this weakly
   unstable but strongly sheared environment this afternoon, but
   overall threat is expected to remain marginal.

   ..Dial.. 09/24/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An initial cold front is moving southeastward from eastern CO to
   northwestern MN in association with the passage of a lead shortwave
   trough.  An upstream trough over the northern Rockies will progress
   eastward toward the northern High Plains tonight, driving a
   re-enforcing cold frontal surge across the central Plains and upper
   MS Valley.  For a period this afternoon/evening, low-level upslope
   flow will establish from extreme southeastern WY/northeastern CO
   into the western NE Panhandle, where residual low-level moisture and
   cloud breaks will support weak surface-based buoyancy.  Given strong
   deep-layer vertical shear and lingering steep midlevel lapse rates,
   a couple of low-end supercells may be capable of producing
   marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts.

   Otherwise, the warm sector will gradually spread northward across
   the OH Valley toward MI, downstream from the amplifying mid-upper
   trough over the northern Plains.  A series of diffuse midlevel
   vorticity maxima will eject northeastward this afternoon across the
   lower OH Valley, and will be preceded by modestly enhanced low-level
   flow (30-35 kt from the south-southwest).  Midlevel lapse rates are
   poor after many prior days of convection, and clouds will tend to
   slow surface heating across TN/KY where the low-level flow/shear
   will be a little stronger.  The overall scenario appears to be quite
   marginal, such that severe wind/tornado probabilities are too low to
   warrant an outlook area.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 24, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities