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    Day 2 Outlook >
Dec 1, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 1 19:48:38 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20211201 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211201 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011948

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CST Wed Dec 01 2021

   Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms remain possible into early evening across
   parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into Kentucky and Tennessee.

   ...20z Update...
   Elevated convection ahead of the fast-moving shortwave trough has
   continued to produce frequent lightning despite meager buoyancy
   across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley. As the progressive
   trough continues southeastward, broad ascent and strengthening
   mid-level warm advection may continue to support isolated
   thunderstorms through portions of Tennessee and southern Kentucky
   into this evening. Forecast confidence remains low given most
   regional model soundings and Hi-res guidance depict scant buoyancy
   below 200 J/kg. However, current trends warrant the continuation of
   general thunder probabilities downstream of the ongoing elevated
   convection. Thunder probabilities were also removed behind the line
   where increasing stability should limit thunder potential.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 12/01/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Wed Dec 01 2021/

   ...Mid-MS Valley to KY/TN...
   A flurry of lightning flashes occurred over the past few hours
   across southeast MO and southern IL within an arc of elevated
   convection in the forced ascent corridor ahead of a progressive
   shortwave trough. Area 12Z RAOBs and recent AMDAR data near Memphis
   and Nashville suggest buoyancy in this regime is scant and spatially
   confined within a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate plume,
   rendering above-average uncertainty in the longevity of the isolated
   thunderstorm threat. CAM guidance that tended to more accurately
   simulate the ongoing convection suggests an overall decrease this
   afternoon as large-scale ascent appears to diminish slightly. Still,
   potential for very isolated thunderstorms may persist farther east
   in TN/KY through early evening before instability/buoyancy becomes
   negligible.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: December 01, 2021
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