Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING FROM WEST
OF ICT TO SOUTH OF OMA. DESPITE RATHER WEAK FORCING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY
MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING FROM WEST
OF ICT TO SOUTH OF OMA. DESPITE RATHER WEAK FORCING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY
MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 290 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 231825Z - 240100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WNW P28/MEDICINE LODGE KS/ - 30E SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /70WSW ICT - 48ESE OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 38229900 41549484 39959484 36639900
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 290 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 290
VALID 232340Z - 240040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-240040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE
$$
KSC009-013-027-041-053-061-077-079-085-095-105-113-115-117-127-
131-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-240040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BROWN CLAY
DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY
HARPER HARVEY JACKSON
KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK
WABAUNSEE
$$
MOC005-087-147-240040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT NODAWAY
$$
NEC097-127-131-133-147-240040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 290
VALID 232230Z - 232340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 870.
..PETERS..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-232340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE
$$
KSC009-013-027-041-053-061-077-079-085-095-105-113-115-117-127-
131-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-232340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BROWN CLAY
DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY
HARPER HARVEY JACKSON
KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK
WABAUNSEE
$$
MOC005-087-147-232340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT NODAWAY
$$
NEC097-127-131-133-147-232340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 290
VALID 232140Z - 232240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-232240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE
$$
KSC009-013-027-041-053-061-077-079-085-095-105-113-115-117-127-
131-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-232240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BROWN CLAY
DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY
HARPER HARVEY JACKSON
KINGMAN LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RENO RICE RILEY
RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK
WABAUNSEE
$$
MOC005-087-147-232240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT NODAWAY
$$
NEC097-127-131-133-147-232240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 290
VALID 232050Z - 232140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...OAX...DDC...ICT...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-129-137-145-232140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY
PAGE
$$
KSC007-009-013-027-033-041-053-061-077-079-085-095-097-105-113-
115-117-127-131-143-149-151-155-159-161-167-169-173-185-197-
232140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BROWN
CLAY COMANCHE DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON KINGMAN
KIOWA LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
PRATT RENO RICE
RILEY RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK STAFFORD WABAUNSEE
$$
MOC005-087-147-232140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON HOLT NODAWAY
$$
NEC097-127-131-133-147-232140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.