Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA
EASTERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF KENNEDY WISCONSIN TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS PASS THROUGH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 291 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 232000Z - 240200Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15WNW ASX/KENNEDY WI/ - 60SSW RST/ROCHESTER MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /42ESE DLH - 17E MCW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 46619026 43119205 43119384 46619216
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 291 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 291
VALID 240130Z - 240200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ALO TO
25 E RST TO 20 ENE EAU.
WW 291 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 240200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 874.
..GRAMS..05/24/07
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC037-089-240200-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW HOWARD
$$
MNC045-047-169-240200-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE FREEBORN WINONA
$$
WIC035-240200-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EAU CLAIRE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 291
VALID 240045Z - 240140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MKT
TO 40 ESE MSP TO 15 NNW EAU TO 55 NE EAU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 874.
.
..CROSBIE..05/24/07
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC037-067-089-131-240140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD
MITCHELL
$$
MNC039-045-047-049-099-109-131-147-157-161-169-240140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE MOWER OLMSTED
RICE STEELE WABASHA
WASECA WINONA
$$
WIC011-017-033-035-091-093-240140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN
EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 291
VALID 232345Z - 240040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MSP TO
40 ESE MSP TO 25 NW EAU TO 55 NNW EAU TO 25 WNW ASX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 871.
..CROSBIE..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC037-067-089-131-240040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD
MITCHELL
$$
MNC039-045-047-049-099-109-131-147-157-161-169-240040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE MOWER OLMSTED
RICE STEELE WABASHA
WASECA WINONA
$$
WIC003-005-007-011-017-031-033-035-051-091-093-099-107-113-129-
240040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS
DUNN EAU CLAIRE IRON
PEPIN PIERCE PRICE
RUSK SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 291
VALID 232245Z - 232340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MKT TO
25 ESE MSP TO 55 NW EAU TO 45 S DLH TO 25 WNW ASX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 871.
..CROSBIE..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC037-067-089-131-232340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD
MITCHELL
$$
MNC039-045-047-049-099-109-147-157-161-169-232340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN
GOODHUE MOWER OLMSTED
STEELE WABASHA WASECA
WINONA
$$
WIC003-005-007-011-017-033-035-051-091-093-107-109-113-129-
232340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN
EAU CLAIRE IRON PEPIN
PIERCE RUSK ST. CROIX
SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 291
VALID 232140Z - 232240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CROSBIE..05/23/07
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC037-067-089-131-232240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD
MITCHELL
$$
MNC025-037-039-045-047-049-099-109-123-131-147-157-161-163-169-
232240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHISAGO DAKOTA DODGE
FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE
MOWER OLMSTED RAMSEY
RICE STEELE WABASHA
WASECA WASHINGTON WINONA
$$
WIC003-005-007-011-013-017-031-033-035-051-091-093-095-107-109-
113-129-232240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BUFFALO BURNETT CHIPPEWA
DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE
IRON PEPIN PIERCE
POLK RUSK ST. CROIX
SAWYER WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.