Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 520
PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419...WW
420...WW 421...WW 422...WW 423...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE OK PANHANDLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN
THE NRN PORTION OF THE WATCH...AND WEAKER TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS STRONG DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS DEVELOPING STORMS MERGE INTO LARGER CLUSTERS...OR AS
ONGOING STORMS IN WRN KS SPREAD SWD INTO THE OK AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 424 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 192220Z - 200700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N GUY/GUYMON OK/ - 35SSE AMA/AMARILLO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /26W LBL - 33SSE AMA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36015.
LAT...LON 36959995 34749998 34740298 36950304
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 424 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 424
VALID 200640Z - 200700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CDS
TO 35 E AMA TO 45 WSW CSM.
WW 424 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20/07Z.
..KERR..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC087-129-200700-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 424
VALID 200440Z - 200540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE AMA TO
35 E AMA TO 10 ENE DHT TO 20 W EHA TO 10 WSW LBL TO 15 WSW GAG.
..DIAL..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC025-139-200540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC065-087-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-483-200540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB MOORE
OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 424
VALID 200340Z - 200440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-200440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-200440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 424
VALID 200045Z - 200140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206.
..GRAMS..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-200140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-200140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 424
VALID 192340Z - 200040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/19/07
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-025-139-200040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-200040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.