Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1120 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 423...WW 424...
DISCUSSION...THE ONGOING MCS/S IN CENTRAL/WRN OK AND THE NE TX
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. A
SEPARATE STORM CLUSTER HAS PRODUCED ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS MERGE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH. STRONG INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME
INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
MERGING/MATURING COLD POOLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 35025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 425 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 200420Z - 201000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
80W CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ - 40NNE DUA/DURANT OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /45NNE LBB - 28SW MLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35025.
LAT...LON 35150168 35209612 33759612 33700168
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 425 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 425
VALID 200925Z - 201000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ADM TO
35 WNW ADM TO 35 SSW MLC.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 425 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
20/10Z.
..KERR..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-069-085-095-201000-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 425
VALID 200830Z - 200940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SPS
TO 35 S CQB.
..KERR..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-137-
200940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
COAL GARVIN HUGHES
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
SEMINOLE STEPHENS
$$
TXC077-200940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 425
VALID 200735Z - 200840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-200840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-075-077-101-107-125-153-155-189-191-197-269-275-303-
345-485-487-200840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS
CLAY COTTLE CROSBY
DICKENS FLOYD FOARD
HALE HALL HARDEMAN
KING KNOX LUBBOCK
MOTLEY WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 425
VALID 200640Z - 200740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/07
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-200740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
TXC009-023-075-077-101-107-125-153-155-189-191-197-269-275-303-
345-485-487-200740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS
CLAY COTTLE CROSBY
DICKENS FLOYD FOARD
HALE HALL HARDEMAN
KING KNOX LUBBOCK
MOTLEY WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.