Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MIDLAND TEXAS TO 55
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 156. WATCH NUMBER 156 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1040 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 157...WW 158...WW
159...
DISCUSSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED AS DEEP-LAYER WSW
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MASS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. INITIAL THREAT WILL
BE FOR HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO
EVOLVE AS COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND MAINTAIN STORM-SCALE/MESOSCALE
ASCENT EWD INTO VERY MOIST UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 160 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 130340Z - 131000Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
MAF/MIDLAND TX/ - 55SSE LTS/ALTUS OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /4SSW MAF - 16WSW SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
REPLACES WW 156..TX
LAT...LON 33110219 35069890 32759890 30790219
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 160 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 160
VALID 130930Z - 131040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW SJT
TO 60 SW SPS TO 20 N SPS.
..HURLBUT..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-417-441-447-485-131040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER SHACKELFORD TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 160
VALID 130835Z - 130940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE 6R6
TO 50 SSW LTS TO 35 ENE CSM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 540
..HURLBUT..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC141-130940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-081-105-207-235-253-353-417-431-441-447-485-487-
130940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR COKE
CROCKETT HASKELL IRION
JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD
STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 160
VALID 130735Z - 130840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MAF
TO 25 NNE BGS TO 45 ESE PVW.
..HURLBUT..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC065-075-141-130840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-075-081-101-105-125-151-155-173-191-197-207-227-
235-253-263-269-275-329-335-345-353-383-415-417-431-433-441-447-
461-485-487-130840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE
CROCKETT DICKENS FISHER
FOARD GLASSCOCK HALL
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD
IRION JONES KENT
KING KNOX MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN
REAGAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON UPTON WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 160
VALID 130645Z - 130740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MAF TO
30 NNE BGS TO 50 ESE PVW.
..PETERS..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC065-075-141-130740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-075-081-101-105-125-151-155-173-191-197-207-227-
235-253-263-269-275-329-335-345-353-383-415-417-431-433-441-447-
461-485-487-130740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE
CROCKETT DICKENS FISHER
FOARD GLASSCOCK HALL
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD
IRION JONES KENT
KING KNOX MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN
REAGAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON UPTON WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 160
VALID 130540Z - 130640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N MAF TO
25 N BGS TO 40 E LBB.
..PETERS..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC065-075-141-130640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-075-081-101-105-107-125-151-155-169-173-191-197-
207-227-235-253-263-269-275-317-329-335-345-353-371-383-415-417-
431-433-441-447-461-485-487-130640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE
CROCKETT CROSBY DICKENS
FISHER FOARD GARZA
GLASSCOCK HALL HARDEMAN
HASKELL HOWARD IRION
JONES KENT KING
KNOX MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN
PECOS REAGAN SCURRY
SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON UPTON
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 160
VALID 130445Z - 130540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/13/10
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC065-075-141-130540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-075-081-101-105-107-115-125-151-155-169-173-191-
197-207-227-235-253-263-269-275-305-317-329-335-345-353-371-383-
415-417-431-433-441-447-461-485-487-130540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE
CROCKETT CROSBY DAWSON
DICKENS FISHER FOARD
GARZA GLASSCOCK HALL
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD
IRION JONES KENT
KING KNOX LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY NOLAN PECOS
REAGAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD
STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON UPTON WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.