Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SE LA AND
SRN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING SW AL AROUND 23Z. OTHER
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE FROM SE LA INTO SE
MS ALONG THE LLJ AND MOIST AXIS. A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM LIX
SHOWED THAT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY IS STILL BASED JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...BUT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODES NOW OBSERVED.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 10 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 011905Z - 020200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
85NW GZH/EVERGREEN AL/ - 40SSE GPT/GULFPORT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /38E MEI - 57SSW SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 32278652 29868730 29869031 32278961
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 10 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 10
VALID 020125Z - 020200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS TO
5 E PNS.
REMAINDER WW 10 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020200Z.
..EDWARDS..02/02/11
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC113-020200-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ650-020200-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 10
VALID 020020Z - 020140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MOB TO
25 N PNS TO 20 NNW GZH TO 10 E SEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 75.
..EDWARDS..02/02/11
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-035-053-099-020140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CONECUH ESCAMBIA
MONROE
$$
FLC033-113-020140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ650-020140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 10
VALID 012330Z - 020040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE GPT TO
35 NNE MOB TO 20 W SEM.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..02/01/11
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-025-035-053-097-099-131-020040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CLARKE CONECUH
ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE
WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-020040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
GMZ630-650-020040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 10
VALID 012240Z - 012340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S GPT TO
5 N GPT TO 45 NNW MOB TO 50 W SEM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 73.
..EDWARDS..02/01/11
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-012340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CLARKE CONECUH
ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-012340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC039-041-047-059-012340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HARRISON
JACKSON
$$
GMZ555-630-650-012340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 10
VALID 012140Z - 012240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BVE TO
15 NNE ASD TO 15 SSE PIB TO 10 ESE MEI.
..PETERS..02/01/11
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-012240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-012240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-153-012240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE FORREST GEORGE
GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON PEARL RIVER PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ555-630-650-012240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 10
VALID 012050Z - 012140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCB
TO 30 NNW PIB TO 35 W MEI.
..PETERS..02/01/11
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-131-012140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
FLC033-113-012140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-067-073-075-101-109-111-
129-131-153-012140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST
GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON JACKSON JASPER
JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE
NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY
SMITH STONE WAYNE
$$
GMZ555-630-650-012140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
MOBILE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.