Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN
ALABAMA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 10...
DISCUSSION...SRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
AT 40+ KTS...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/LEWPS MOVE NNE ALONG IT AT A
SOMEWHAT GREATER SPEED. AHEAD OF THE SQLN...MORE ISOLD STORMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE AL SSW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO /REF MCD 75/. WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK...KEVX VWP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS...GIVEN EXISTING STORMS. COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF INTENSE MS VLY UPR VORT...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 11 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 020020Z - 020500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW DHN/DOTHAN AL/ - 25WSW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /57SE MGM - 55SE CEW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
LAT...LON 31468444 30078490 30078723 31468681
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 11 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 11
VALID 020435Z - 020540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PFN
TO 25 ENE DHN.
REMAINDER WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..02/02/11
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC067-069-020540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-077-133-020540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JACKSON
LIBERTY WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR EARLY MILLER
SEMINOLE
$$
GMZ750-020540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 11
VALID 020340Z - 020440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO
25 ENE CEW TO 15 NW DHN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 78.
..EDWARDS..02/02/11
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-020440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-077-131-133-020440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LIBERTY WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR EARLY MILLER
SEMINOLE
$$
GMZ750-020440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 11
VALID 020235Z - 020340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PNS TO
20 NE CEW TO 15 NW DHN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 78.
..EDWARDS..02/02/11
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-020340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-077-131-133-020340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LIBERTY WALTON
WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR EARLY MILLER
SEMINOLE
$$
GMZ750-020340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 11
VALID 020130Z - 020240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PNS TO
15 N CEW TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 ENE GZH.
..EDWARDS..02/02/11
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC031-039-045-061-067-069-020240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE COVINGTON DALE
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
$$
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-077-091-131-133-020240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA
WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020240-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR EARLY MILLER
SEMINOLE
$$
GMZ655-750-020240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.